Saratoga Wednesday July 29th Analysis

[Kitan]

Race 1:
#7 Verne is SCR...
#4 Alwaary is SCR...
#6 Overwhelming
#9 Cul Baire
#8 Kwacha

Race 2:
#2 American Progress: Couldn't keep up chasing a rapid 44.4 half on the Shore. Pace should be a bit softer and his first three for Rudy would blow these away. Not worried about the drop down as he was claimed for 35k and they've already recouped that and then some.
#3 Bet the Power: 11 for 38 lifetime but just 1 for 10 since the start of '14. Will see if Englehart can refresh the old legs.
#4 Saint Finian
#1 Hannibal Lecter

Race 3:
#9 Tuneintobow: Career best in identical conditions in Jersey and eligible to go one better here.
#5 Tax Deduction: Shows speed when he's been able to break cleanly and should want turf. Only the one work off the layoff so he may need one but Moquett can get them ready.
#1 Ackerman Road
#7 Finalize

Race 4:
#5 Street Story: Going with the improving 4yo for the upset. Wasn't very settled prior to her only run Upstate but has been steadily on the rise since. Ran just as well against Dame Dorothy as Judy did when considering all the weight factors then and now. Should get the perfect trip.
#4 Judy the Beauty: Ward 0/20 (7) ITM off 45-90 days on the dirt at the Spa. Especially can't trust the way Rosario has been riding.
#3 La Verdad: #2 has and most likely will gun just to her inside. I think she'll get cooked early.

Race 5:
#7 Sylvia T: Only 1 for 18 but her best races have been in turf routes. Handily beat the Pletcher runner who came back to win and the odds will be better.
#11 Winner's Legacy: Loomed large with a perfect trip but needed the run off the 7 month layoff. Pace should suit.
#5 Undertherain: Bottomed them out to win on the drop. Has to prove that wasn't a one-off.
#3 Tizallheart: Positive rider switch and always hangs around for a share.

Race 6:
#9 Cloverdale Nine is SCR...
#8 Regal Soldier is SCR...
#4 Well Lawyered
#1 Successful Runner
#7 Wynhurst

Race 7:
#12 Sister Superior: Bet down to 3-1 off a fantastic debut by Bush standards. Had missed a few works prior to that race so I can excuse that poor performance.
#10 First Charmer: Can control the race if she retained her 2yo speed. Off the layoff but it's Mott and Junior.
#11 Ranger's Express: Taken to the turf and the cutback to a flat mile will only aid her cause.
#3 Broken Border: Been a victim of some wide trips behind slow fractions. Don't know if she'll be any closer but at least she shouldn't be posted deep from an inside draw.
Not enamoured with #1 but reluctant to get beat by her. #4 is very dangerous if she can repeat her debut performance, but that was 51 weeks ago and there wasn't much turf pedigree to begin with. #8 has a shot but as well.

Race 8:
#9 Oklahoma Den: Has been facing much tougher and will be hard to beat if he can bring that form up north.
#12 Sonnyandpally: 2nd and 3rd in his last two in this N1X class and has run well over the course in the past.
#4 Battle of Evermore
#7 McQuaid

Race 9:
#1 Jacobson Entry: Tetradrachm ran a monster race last time only to get run down by Ironicus and has a big chance to wire them. Slim Shadey drops into the easiest field he's faced this year.
#10 All Included: Has had perfect trips in all his turf races. Definitely talented but not a cinch.
#2 Mr. Online
#11 Sky Flight

Race 10:
#8 Backwater Blues: Can't excuse his last but that was his only bad race so far this season. He followed up his last poor performance with a solid second to Shore Runner.
#4 Spa City Fever: If he brings his game he rolls. If.
#9 Highroller Dave
#2 Native Gold
#3 Taxplayer underneath at a big price...

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 2: 2, 3
Race 3: 1, 5, 9
Race 4: 4, 5
Race 5: 5, 7, 11
Race 6: 1, 4, 7
$64.80

$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 3: 1, 5, 7, 9
Race 4: 4, 5
Race 5: 5, 7, 11
Race 6: 1, 4, 7
$43.20
Cover: 1, 5, 9/5/3, 4, 9, 12/1, 4, 7 $21.60
$64.80 total

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 7: 1, 3, 4, 8, 10, 11, 12
Race 8: 9, 12
Race 9: 1, 10
Race 10: 2, 4, 8, 9
$76.80

Good luck!