BEL Wed 9/21 Pick 5 Analysis

[ateamstupid]

1st: My first key horse is going to be #1 Liberty First in the 1st (!) By far, the two best races of his career came when he was turned back to a dirt sprint in the early summer. He blew away a $20k MCL field at CD, then was a good 2nd at SAR behind a frontrunner gifted an easy lead on a speed-favoring track. For some reason, Gary Contessa claimed him out of that effort and decided to stretch him out on turf. He was awful, then ran reasonably well when cut back to a turf sprint. He returned to dirt last time and was beaten almost 10 lengths, but was given a strangely overaggressive ride that day and as a result, chased a super fast pace going seven furlongs. He turns back to six off the claim for Tom Morley and should be able to sit a more favorable one-run trip today under Eric Cancel. If he does, I expect him to run back to one of his prior two dirt sprints, both of which would make him tough to beat. I also am just not crazy about the competition. #3 Call Me Stoney will probably go favored off the big dropdown, but he's still yet to run close to fast enough to beat Liberty First on his good day. #4 Royal Burgh is slightly interesting off the claim for John Toscano, but he is claiming off Pletcher, a horse he and Starlight very quickly gave up on. #7 Greeley Pack has races fast enough to win and will be a huge price, but is tough to have much faith in off getting pulled up with a 1-for-32 (0-for-18 dirt) record.

A: 1
B: none
C: 3,4,7

2nd: #6 Stylish Quality has the look of a real runner for a Ralph Nicks barn that can do no wrong right now. She has pretty much nothing but fast works on the tab since mid-July and catches one of the weaker 3+ MSW's you'll see at Belmont. #5 High Ridge Road also has to be used off the layoff for Martin Schwartz and Chad Brown. #2 Il Mulino and #3 Cover Up can both win, but they don't appear to have the same upside as the top two choices and of the two, I prefer Cover Up, making his first start on dirt with Lasix.

A: 5,6
B: 3
C: 2

3rd: The venerable #2 Frazil is the horse to beat off a terrific 2nd two back followed by a subpar effort going a bit too far over a sloppy track he's proven he doesn't love. If #4 Bass River Road finally runs, he has to be used, but his form has to be considered a total mystery with how many times he's been scratched this meet. #1 Storm Pursuit is definitely dangerous for Chris Englehart, especially with Castellano named, and it's notable that this barn chooses not to enter him for a tag in this $25k claimer. The rail might force him into a tough spot with lots of other speed to his outside, however. Those are the main three to me.

A: 2
B: 1,4

4th: Definitely a race worth spreading in, as these cheap NY-bred maiden claimers on the turf often are. It's worth noting that the running lines in the PP's for that 9/3 race are wrong. #6 Weather Girl was never 6th, 7 lengths off the frontrunner at any point. In fact, she was on the hard chase on a fast pace the whole way around and ran well to be 3rd in there. She's the horse to beat. She was better than #3 Flying K C, whose running line also appears to be incorrect, but I liked that one's race two back, when she had a lousy trip and did well to be 2nd. She also gets a positive rider switch to Luis Saez. I think all three of #5 Coramoss, #8 Irish Laughter and #9 Hope's Roar ran well enough in that 9/27 race to be used in some capacity. #2 Not Now Joanie makes sense getting back to turf, though you have to wonder why Nevin didn't just go there immediately off the trainer switch. #12 Wantagh Queen is also a contender, though the post does her no favors. The only ones I can't really make a case for are 1,4,7,11.

A: 6
B: 2,3,5,8,9,10,12

5th: This is a race filled with horses I'm tired of seeing beat up on each other, so I'm taking a stand with #4 Lady Luciano on the drop. She's a speedball and got caught chasing the fastest mile fractions of the meet thus far on 9/18. She figures to have a much easier time of it on the lead today and I like her to go to the front and never be caught under Javier. It seems very unlikely you'll get her 6-1 M/L price, but I think half that is still a square number. #5 Just Got Out and #6 Majestic Marquet are the obvious other horses dropping as well, but I prefer the one with the probable pace advantage.

A: 4
B: 5,6

I'm playing the Pick 5 so that either Liberty First or Lady Luciano have to win, along with some presses if both of them do.

$.50 1/3,5,6/1,2,4/2,3,5,6,8,9,10,12/4,5,6 = 108
$.50 1,3,4,7/3,5,6/1,2,4/2,3,5,6,8,9,10,12/4 = 144
$3 1/5,6/2/6/4 = 6
$2 1/3,5,6/1,2,4/6/4 = 18
$1 1/5,6/2/2,3,5,6,9,12/4 = 12

$288 total before scratches

Good luck!