11/28: Aqueduct ($38k C/O); Churchill (8th-12th); Del Mar (5th-10th)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Gehrig 2-1 WON ($4.90)
Next Best: #6 Hit It Once More 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Sherry's Miracle 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 New York's Zip 6-1 4th

$1 Exacta (2-9) Paid $18.80
$1 Trifecta (2-9-6) Paid $56.75
$1 Superfecta (2-9-6-7) Paid $323.50


2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Loose On the Town 3-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Altar Boy 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Between the Lines 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Possilicious 5-2 4th


3rd: 94th Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Lewis Bay 8-5 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #5 Lost Raven 6-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Flora Dora 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Thrilled 4-1 2nd


4th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Snag 2-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Inspector Lynley 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Stevie Q 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Clear the Mine 8-1 8th


5th: 102nd Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

$37.7k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #4 Flexibility 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Mohaymen 8-5 WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #2 Sail Ahoy 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Gift Box 4-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 2 (A), 6-9 (B), 5-7-8 (C)
2: 2-6 (A), 3-5 (B), 1-4 (C)
3: 2 (A), 5 (B), 1-3-4 (C)
4: 6 (A), 1 (B), 2-3-5-8 (C)
5: 3-4 (A), 2-6 (B), 1-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96


P4 Grid:

2: 2-6 (A), 3-5 (B), 1-4 (C)
3: 2 (A), 1-5 (B), 3-4 (C)
4: 6 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-5-8 (C)
5: 3-4 (A), 2-6 (B), 1-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Typically impossible NYB turf ALW with 7 of the 10 looking win eligible. Nightmare for P6 budgets..

Most Likely: #4 Sonnyandpally 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 He Has Charm 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Island Therapy 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Raffies Bay 10-1 10th


7th: 66th Comely (G3), 3yo-F, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

You'll recall from ATR visits that Motion was jumping out of his skin to get Peace and War into the Distaff and her effort from the impossible 14 hole was hardly an embarrassment. Moves inside v. sophomore sisterhood and can garner laurels. The Great One sends Curlish Figure who is maturing into a good filly, is bred to suit trip and will be boxcars..

Most Likely: #1 Peace and War 4-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Curlish Figure 20-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Carrumba 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Forever Unbridled 4-1 WON ($11.40)


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Orino 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Mutin 6-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Goodtolook 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Dream Man 20-1 5th


9th: 27th Cigar Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (DD)

Marking apparently SCR'ing..

Most Likely: #7 Private Zone 6-5 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Tonalist 2-1 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #2 Mshawish 10-1 4th


10th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #7 Preying Mantis 10-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Alabama Bound 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Sophia's Choice 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Silver Vixen 8-1 8th


P6 Grid:

5: 3-4 (A), 2-6 (B), 1-9 (C)
6: 4 (A), 1-5 (B), 7-8-9-10 (C)
7: 1 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-9-10 (C)
8: 1-6 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
9: 7 (A), - (B), 2-4-5 (C)
10: 7 (A), 4-10 (B), 5-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2x1x3 = 144 x $2 = $288


P4 Grid:

7: 1 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-9-10 (C)
8: 1-6 (A), - (B), 7-9-10-11 (C)
9: 7 (A), 2-5 (B), 4 (C)
10: 4-7 (A), 5-6-8-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x6 = 96 x $0.50 = $48



CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


SHOWERY DAY ANTICIPATED


8th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Black Ops 12-1 WON ($19.60)
Next Best: #3 Dothat Dance 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Cite 6-1 7th
Super Add: #13 Tapster 20-1 6th


9th: 72nd Golden Rod (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Stageplay 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Carina Mia 2-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #2 Sugar Cone 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Dothraki Queen 5-2 4th


10th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Patton Proud 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Conquest Big E 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #10 Spikes Shirl 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Unexplained 4-1 2nd


11th: 89th Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), 2yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Gun Runner 8-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Perfect Saint 30-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Mor Spirit 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Annual Report 5-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Mo Tom 8-1 3rd


12th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Gray Sky 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #12 Silvertown 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Entertainer 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Lucky Ramsey 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Shorty Town 20-1 8th


P5 Grid:

8: 2-3 (A), 10 (B), - (C)
9: 3-8 (A), - (B), 2-9 (C)
10: 2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 4-5 (A), 9-11 (B), 3-7-10-12 (C)
12: 3 (A), 1-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x $0.50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-5 (2/8/1,4,7,9/3/3) Paid $649.60 (Full A/B/C: A-A-A-C-A)


P4 Grid:

9: 3-8 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
10: 2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 4-5 (A), 9-10-11-12 (B), 3-7 (C)
12: 3 (A), 1-12 (B), 2-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x6x3 = 144 x $0.50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-4 (8/1,4,7,9/3/3) Paid $61.30 (Full A/B/C: A-A-C-A)



DEL MAR


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: Jimmy Durante (G3), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Mirage 8-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Corps de Ballet 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Jeremy's Legacy 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Riri 7-2 10th


6th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Roman Tizzy 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Tribal Jewel 8-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #8 Storm Comin Thru 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Toledo Eddie 5-1 4th


7th: Hollywood Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Chiropractor 8-1 WON ($30.20)
Next Best: #6 Fundamental 8-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Mister Brightside 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Om 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #13 Offering Plan 5-1 5th


8th: Native Diver (G3), 3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Dortmund 6-2 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #4 Iron Fist 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Imperative 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Big Cazanova 10-1 4th


9th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Somethings Unusual 8-1 ($15.60)
Next Best: #6 Hunt 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Second Summer 6-1 4th
Super Add: #7 What a View 9-2 5th
Hi-5 Play: #5 Itsinthepost 20-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (1-6) Paid $29.70
$1 Trifecta (1-6-5) Paid $808.70
$1 Superfecta (1-6-5-11) Paid $6,998.20
$1 Exact 5 (1-6-5-11-7) Paid $4,643.80


P4 Grid:

6: 6 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
7: 4-6 (A), 1-5-11-13 (B), 3-10 (C)
8: 3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-6 (A), 7-11 (B), 2-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x4 = 144 x $0.50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/4/1,3,6/1) Paid $849.15


Good luck!
Steve