6/11: Belmont Park (148th Belmont Stakes)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: 6th Easy Goer, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

ML of 3-5 likely correct on Cupid, but it's not reflective of his chances and there's no reason to accept it. If unchallenged, Cupid can wire sure, but on figures, he's comes in slower than Rally Cry, Hit It Once More and Economic Model. Rally Cry is the horse to beat and for our betting purposes, the one to catch after he hounds Cupid. Hit It Once More should sit a perfect stalking 3rd behind those two, while giving Jose Ortiz the option to attack or even take control as the situation unfolds. 'Short field, long price' for my man Sciacca..

Best Value: #4 Hit It Once More 20-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Rally Cry 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Economic Model 7-2 WON ($10.00)


2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Excellent ALW group featuring assortment of veterans and emergent types. Connect, Eagle Scout and Doctor Mounty all have upside and tactical gears; Wake Up in Malibu and Juan and Bina are mid-career one-turners that fill pay slots with alacrity. Connect gets as much as 8# from foes and is the one to beat for Pompa and Chad Brown sitting behind the speed..

Most Likely: #6 Connect 3-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #5 Doctor Mounty 6-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Eagle Scout 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Wake Up in Malibu 10-1 2nd


3rd: 86th Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Those disappointment about Nyquist and Exaggerator not facing off in the feature can take solace in the sophomore fillies mixing it up here. It's likely Carina Mia's 'turn', but Cathryn Sophia continuing to work like a crazy horse and draws well..

Most Likely: #5 Cathryn Sophia 6-5 3rd
Next Best: #4 Carina Mia 4-1 WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #2 Off the Tracks 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Go Maggie Go 3-1 4th


4th: 128th Brooklyn (G2), 4+, 12f (P3, DD)

The day's other 12f dirt event a showcase for Kid Cruz who won on this day at 3 taking the Easy Goer. While Linda Rice charge is very much the horse to beat, there are several legit contenders for honors and longshots with punchers' chances sprinkled throughout the lineup. Don't be shy using your ideas building plays within the race..

Most Likely: #7 Kid Cruz 3-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Shaman Ghost 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Best Value: #5 Turco Bravo 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Samraat 5-1 4th


5th: 48th Ogden Phipps (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

It took me a half hour to decide on a pecking order in this serious Distaff test and still unhappy about leaving Sheer Drama out of the super. The top players here feel interchangeable, but Forever Unbridled looking like the new hotness in the division and can adjust as needed with Rosario..

Best Value: #6 Forever Unbridled 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Stopchargingmaria 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Cavorting 9-2 WON ($10.60)
Super Add: #5 Curalina 3-1 4th


P5 Grid:

1: 2-4-5 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
2: 6 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
3: 4-5 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
4: 4-7 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
5: 2-4-6 (A), 5-7 (B), 1 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x2x2x5 = $100 ($50 for .50)
All A's: 3x1x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$1 Pick-5 (5/6/4/4/4) Paid $1,533.50 ($766.75 for .50)


P4 Grid:

2: 2-6 (A), - (B), 3-5-9 (C)
3: 4-5 (A), 2 (B), 6 (C)
4: 4-7 (A), 2-5 (B), 1-3-6-10 (C)
5: 2-4-6 (A), 1-5-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4-6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$1 Pick-4 (6/4/4/4) Paid $231.00 ($115.50 for .50)


6th: 33rd Jaipur (G3), 4+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Mercifully, Jaipur and Woody Stephens not in P4's. Deep group has variety of surface switchers, cutbacks and stretchouts making for a maddening exercise. There's virtually no bad ideas here..

Best Value: #7 Green Mask 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 A Lot 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Commute 12-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Guns Loaded 6-1 13th


7th: 32nd Woody Stephens (G2), 3yo, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

SCR #12 I Will Score..

Three year old sprint division really starting to take shape and this nice group has lots of pace to stretch things out and open up the gaps necessary for all styles to put in their runs. Approaching this looking for some collapse and Counterforce the key at 15-1. Was at a disadvantage at Pimlico on slick strip and 7th furlong likely benefits here as well. Star Hill, a fave since seeing his debut at SAR, broke MDN this trip and another that seems to be finding his distance range after solid route tries this winter..

Best Value: #7 Counterforce 15-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Dig Deep 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #13 Star Hill 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Sharp Azteca 7-2 4th


8th: 23rd Just a Game (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Absence of Tepin and Miss Temple City opened floodgates for F&M's taking swing at G1 and $700k. Though faves like Miss McDougal, Recepta, Rainha and Faufilier may be more likely prospects, looks like spot where you want to spread in multis and take shots in-race. Pace looks honest at very least and could easily boil over. Hidden gem in here possibly Cassidy's Prize Exhibit at 30-1 who gets pilot upgrade in Prat, has won 3x at the trip and versatile gears. Mystery Euro Irish Rookie demands respect too..

Most Likely: #7 Mrs McDougal 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Prize Exhibit 30-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Recepta 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Irish Rookie 10-1 12th


9th: 123rd Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

SCR #1 El Kabeir, #3 Donworth & #9 Sloane Avenue..

May not have the star power of many Mets, but makes up for it in rock solid stakes players of varying styles. Eight 4yo's including top players Frosted, Upstart & Calculator have big shot at career-making win. At 10-1, Calculator especially feels like the right key having found high level rhythm after missing most of 3yo season. Peter Miller trainee successfully traveled to AQU and CD for near misses in Carter and Churchill Downs Sprint and should benefit from stretch to mile from 7f. Upstart (20-1) offers value v. Frosted (7-2) and Ami's Flatter (6-1). Anchor Down (12-1) exits Westchester and looks dangerous under Jose Ortiz perched outside..

Most Likely: #11 Calculator 10-1 10th
Best Value: #6 Upstart 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Anchor Down 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Frosted 7-2 WON ($6.70)
Super Add: #8 Ami's Flatter 6-1 5th


10th: 115th Manhattan (G1), 4+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Betting it as a stand-alone race, you'd make case that Flintshire is a deserving heavy favorite but try to build plays that included those that could win with their best like World Approval, Divisidero, Ironicus, etc. But for the late P4's, concluding that given spread necessities in the rest of the sequences, Flintshire needs to be a single..

Most Likely: #10 Flintshire 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #1 World Approval 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Divisidero 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Ironicus 4-1 2nd


11th: 148th Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)

More than enough hints that Exaggerator vulnerable here at ridiculously low price and no shortage of attractive options. As discussed last week in Xpressbet Belmont Wagering Guide and on ATR, Governor Malibu has makeup for success in this event from pedigree, preparation, connections and style standpoints. Rosario saves ground every step while maintaining contact with the front half of field and should get first jump on the later runners. Plucky Preakness trier Stradavari the preferred Pletcher for me, though can't blame anyone for wanting Destin prominently on their plays. Addition of pacesetter Gettysburg to field may end up being an ideal stalk target for the Medaglia d'Oro colt. Lani has improved as the Triple Crown has gone on and will benefit from the wide, sweeping turns, long backstretch run and having trained here the last 5 weeks..

Most Likely: #1 Governor Malibu 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Stradavari 5-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Lani 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Exaggerator 9-5 11th
Super Add: #4 Suddenbreakingnews 10-1 9th


P4 Grid:

8: 2-6-7 (A), 8-9-10 (B), 3-5-12-13 (C)
9: 6-11 (A), 5-12 (B), 8-13 (C)
10: 10 (A), - (B), 1-2-6-9-11 (C)
11: 1-5-10 (A), 2-4-11 (B), 12-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
(Note: A-A-C-A Backup Play beyond Flintshire in Manhattan: 3x2x5x3 = 90 x .50 = $45)
All A's: 3x2x1x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)


12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Gold Shield 7-2 7th
Next Best: #8 Fundamental 5-2 WON-via DQ ($6.90)
Exotics Use: #3 Inordinate 4-1 WON-DQ to 5th
Super Add: #6 Animal Instinct 6-1 6th


13th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f

Most Likely: #10 Watershed 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Sir Bond 20-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Dannie's Deceiver 8-1 WON ($14.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Colonel Sharp 12-1 10th


P6 Grid:

10: 10 (A), - (B), 1-2-6-9-11 (C)
11: 1-5-10 (A), 2-4-11 (B), 12-13 (C)
12: 2-8 (A), 1-3-6 (B), 4 (C)
13: 1-5-10 (A), 6-7-8 (B), 2-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x5x6 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 1x3x2x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (3,4,10/13/5,8/5) Paid $588.25 (A-C-A-A)


Good luck!
Steve