7/30: Saratoga ~ Day 8 ($502k C/O; Vanderbilt/Jim Dandy)

[Kasept]

Carryover stretched to a third day after 4 more $20+ winners including Charlie Baker's debuting wire score Freud's Friend at 15-1 and hard-to-find Eden Ridge (Carlos Martin) at 13-1. With $502,700 to start the pool, expect the pot to approach $3,000,000 for sequence that includes universal single Flintshire in the Leg B Bowling Green. Races 8 (turf ALW), 9 (Vanderbilt) and 11 (MCLM/$40k on grass) are the budget-challenging spots. Should be a tremendous raceday with 4 stakes as part of the terrific top-to-bottom card..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Paul Pompa's Connect was tenacious beating stablemate Gift Box in Friday's Curlin (100 Beyer) and his homebred El Talento could start the day off smartly here..

Most Likely: #3 El Talento 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Impressive Edge 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Ancient Warfare 5-1 WON ($13.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Majestic Tom 4-1 5th


2nd: CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Cerro 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Sam Sparkle 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1a Heaven's Runway 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Old Upstart 8-1 WON ($13.40)


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Theory 8-5 WON ($3.30)
Best Value: #7 Ultron 8-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Kahramani 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Tale of Silence 3-1 8th


4th: 24th Amsterdam (G2), 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

SCR #4 Ready Dancer who ran Friday..

Ward's Maniacal a wire candidate certainly, but turnback Its All Relevant has speed/finish to score at a price..

Best Value: #5 Its All Relevant 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Maniacal 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Mind Your Biscuits 9-2 WON ($8.30)
Super Add: #3 Quijote 12-1 DNF (Clipped heels; Eased)


5th: MSW, 3+, 9.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Open looking group of lumbering types, many exiting 6/12 or 7/9 events downstate. Kenneally's Astute Warrior (20-1) invades from Churchill for steeplechase ownership staple Bill Pape and gets notable pilot switch to Geroux. Worth a flier in undefined set..

Best Value: #9 Astute Warrior 20-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Rediscover 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Richmond Street 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Deeply Undervalued 2-1 WON ($4.90)


P5 Grid:

1: 3-6 (A), 1-8 (B), 5-9-10 (C)
2: 1-5-6 (A), - (B), 4-7-8 (C)
3: 11 (A), - (B), 1-3-7 (C)
4: 2-5 (A), - (B), 3-7-8 (C)
5: 3-8-9 (A), 4-7-10 (B), 1-2-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x2x6 = 144 x $.50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x1x2x3 = $36 ($18 for .50)


P4 Grid:

2: 1-5-6 (A), 4-7-8 (B), - (C)
3: 11 (A), - (B), 1-3-7 (C)
4: 2-5 (A), - (B), 3-7-8 (C)
5: 3-4-8-9-10 (A), 1-2-5-6-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x2x10 = 120 x $.50 = $60
All A's: 3x1x2x5 = $30 ($15 for .50)


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Giant $502k 3-day C/O starts here and a tricky spot it is in typical turf sprint fashion with 4 open company claiming/starter types mixing it up with 2 recent MCLM winners and 4 trying again to clear comdition.

Best Value: #8 Esther the Queen 10-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Aussie Prayer 7-2 WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #3 Somerset Sandy 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #9 Wantagh Queen 20-1 4th


7th: 58th Bowling Green (G2), 4+, 11f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Flintshire 1-5 WON ($2.20)
Next Best: #5 Grand Tito 6-1 2nd


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

2nd of the three deep spots in the sequence demanding wide coverage with 5 serious win candidates (1-3-5-6-9) and the other 7 all within reach of contention..

Best Value: #1 Captain Moss 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Ray's the Bar 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Circus Performer 9-2 7th
Super Add: #3 Idiosyncratic 6-1 2nd


9th: 32nd A. G. Vanderbilt (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

How you approach Navarro trio is the key question here. Catalina Red could have upside yet while Delta Bluesman has maintained excellent form for an extended period. Chublicious matched his best effort going back to Danny Lopez' care in May return and then improved on it winning the Mr. Prospector. 12-1 appears generous on a horse that can adjust to pace scenario. Beyond those, A.P. Indian has emerged at 6 as a major sprint player and Anchor Down may be sneaky here sucking along inside under under Jose Ortiz off cut back from Met Mile. Holy Boss adds blinkers that should keep him involved. Should be entertaining..

Most Likely: #4 A. P. Indian 5-1 WON ($11.40)
Best Value: #6 Chublicious 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Anchor Down 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Catalina Red 5-1 3rd


10th: 53rd Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Mohaymen has been camping upstate for 2 months and this feels like the spot for him to regain his sparkle as Alpha did in this off identical plan in 2012. McLaughlin especially good off freshenings and morning efforts display a more robust and fluid version versus the frazzled one we saw in spring. Speaking of similar approaches to the Jim Dandy, remember that Guillot was 3rd in this with Moreno in 2013 and Jose Ortiz was aboard that day as well..

Most Likely: #3 Mohaymen 9-5 4th
Next Best: #4 Destin 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Laoban 20-1 WON ($56.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Governor Malibu 9-2 2nd


11th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #1 Smile Big 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Back Road Bellamy 20-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Mo's Ginny 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Newcomb 8-1 WON ($8.80)


P6 Grid:

6: 2-8 (A), - (B), 1-3-9 (C)
7: 2 (A), - (B), 1-3-5 (C)
8: 1-5 (A), 3-6 (B), 7-9-10 (C)
9: 1-4-6 (A), 2-3-5 (B), 7-8 (C)
10: 3 (A), - (B), 2-4-5 (C)
11: 1 (A), 8-9 (B), 4-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x4x6x1x3 = 144 x $2 = $288
All A's: 2x1x2x3x1x1 = 12 x $2 = $24

$2 Pick-6 (2,4,6/2,3/5/4/2/4) Paid $190.50 (5OF6) x 2 = $381.00


P4 Grid:

8: 1-5 (A), 3-6 (B), 7-9-10 (C)
9: 1-4-6 (A), 2-3-5 (B), 7-8 (C)
10: 3-4 (A), - (B), 1-2-5-6 (C)
11: 1-8-9 (A), - (B), 4-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x2x3 = 144 x $.50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = $36 ($18 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve