Sar 8/24 Steeplechase

[Flatterer]

For the 3rd time this meet, a non-winners of 2 life allowance will be contested at 2 1/16 miles in the first race at Saratoga 8/24. I’ll be at Saratoga through Travers Day grandstand Section N at the top. If somebody wants these seats for Monday 8/29, send me a PM.

Redboard time: My “B” selections have hit on 8/11 Get Ready Set Goes at 7/1 and on 8/17 Detroit Blues at 13/1. I don’t think there will be as much value today.

Most of these runners have already faced each other so we can draw meaningful who beat who comparisons. The most important race was the Sport of Kings Maiden 5th race from Nashville 5/14, contested over good (tiring) ground with 14 fences.

Here is a link to the race video.

http://www.nationalsteeplechase.com/...-steeplechase/

Here is a link for 2016 NSA Owner/Trainer/Rider standings

http://www.nationalsteeplechase.com/...tStandings.pdf

The course configuration of 8 jumps makes this a modified flat race so fast flat turf form will do well.

Here is a list of runners with NSA turf rating numbers in parenthesis – higher number means more weight if this was a handicap instead of a condition allowance.

#1 Causeworthy (114) Won maiden victory over fences at the Queen’s Cup in North Carolina 4/30, but did not beat much. Finished 14 lengths behind #5 Second Amendment in a Radnor allowance hurdle 5/21 and was up the track well beaten in a Monmouth Park Ratings Handicap 6/14. Good turf speed but appears to be overmatched.

#2 All for Us (120) Leading trainer Jack Fisher and 2nd leading rider Connor Hankin team up for serious threat but have to tote 156 high weight. Never off the board in 3 hurdle tries. Won debut by default in a $40K Sport of Kings maiden hurdle at Nashville 5/14 when 3 horses in front of him fell over the last 2 jumps. 2nd in Monmouth Park Ratings Handicap 6/14 and 3rd in a similar Saratoga allowance hurdle 7/27. Sport of King maidens run for higher prize money than regular Maiden Special Weights. Excellent turf speed, underneath chance in exotics.

#3 Castle Hill (N/A) Longtime Client/Owner William Pape for trainer Jonathan Sheppard will try to extend Sheppard’s Saratoga winning streak to 48 years. Maiden winner on flat finished 3rd against #2 All for Us in Nashville maiden hurdle 5/14, then lost rider when stirrup leather broke after 3rd fence in Parx maiden hurdle 7/12. Good turf speed with 141 light weight but still a maiden hurdler. Will offer little value as Sheppard will be over bet.

Time is running out for Sheppard’s winning streak. There is only one other hurdle runner that can compete at Saratoga (Powerofone) on 8/31 and Sheppard’s best chance is with the 3YO NY bred filly maiden flat turf runner Catch Your Dreams. Tab Catch Your Dreams in your stable mail for a runback at Saratoga. His runner in race 9 today, #2 Rum Tum Tugger, does not have enough late race acceleration to win.

#4 Stormy Alex (105) Leading owner Irv Naylor, 2nd leading trainer Cyril Murphy and 3rd leading jockey Ross Geraghty team up again to try and make amends after last week’s next to last finish with Duke of Medina. Generally, Naylor doesn’t like to run at Saratoga because it is too speedy. Won maiden claimer at Tryon 5/7, beating a bunch of nobodies, and then was well-beaten 2nd at Lexington High Hope Ratings Handicap 5/22. Slow turf speed, and too slow to compete, maybe 4th at bottom of super.

#5 Second Amendment (115) Nice 2nd in Radnor conditioned allowance 5/21 beating #1 Causworthy, then was 5th in Parx Ratings Handicap 7/12. Finished 2nd in an allowance hurdle at VA Gold Cup 5/7 over soft going after being pulled up in first hurdle try this year 4/9. Slow turf speed but finds a way to run underneath for exotics.

#6 Share Out (113) Trainer Todd Wyatt employs leading jockey Jack Doyle. Finished well beaten 3rd in optional allowance hurdle at Tryon 5/7 and 7th in a Ratings Handicap at Middleburg 4/23. Excellent turf speed but recent form does not make him competitive. Not sure why Doyle picked this one to ride, head scratcher.

#7 North Star Boy (Ire) (N/A) No hurdle or point to point starts in 2016. Ran well in flat turf prep at Laurel 8/5 and was competitive over hurdles in 2015. Jockey Darren Nagle stays as rider. Nagle is not in the top 10 NSA rider standings this year. Excellent turf speed (lost to Wise Dan in 2014 Bernard Baruch by 2 1/2 lengths), horse for course, nice Tapeta works at Fair Hill make him a threat.

#8 Help From Heaven (115) 4th leading trainer Doug Fout and 5th leading jockey Kieran Norris like to show-up for a check with this strong contender. Ran 2nd in hurdle debut at Middleburg 4/23. At Nashville 5/14, Help From Heaven was finishing strongly when a fallen horse (Bishop’s Castle) blocked Help From Heaven’s way after the last jump, causing Help From Heaven to fall. Help From Heaven would have won if he had a clear run. This was confirmed when Help From Heaven easily won at Monmouth 6/17. Finished 2nd in Saratoga allowance hurdle 7/27 behind lose on the lead pacesetter Kensington Court. Excellent turf speed. Top Choice.

#9 Dyna’s Vow (114) Jockey Paddy Young felt well enough to ride last week finishing 3rd (Blue Atlantic) and will try to get another check with this runner. Led pack following pacesetter at Saratoga 7/27 but faded to 4th. Slow turf speed and has a chance to finish 4th at bottom of super.

Projected order of finish:

8-7-2-3-5-9-4-6-1

For betting purposes:

A) 8-7

B) 2-3

Best of Luck to everyone!!

Thursday NY Turf Writers only drew 6 entries with Bob LeBeau the favorite carrying 162. I believe the extra turn/distance will make him vulnerable. Analysis will be posted by Wednesday.