Belmont Steeplechase 9/22

[Flatterer]

Novice runners are featured in The William Entenmann Memorial, an allowance condition race for horses that have not won over jumps before March 1, 2015 or have never won 3 races, other than 3YO.

In the 4 turn Entenmann, the final two fences in the stretch will not be jumped, and the field will have a five-furlong run from the last of nine fences. Sweeping turns do not give early speed a big advantage. Front runners faded in the stretch in 2015.

Here is the field for the 2 1/4-mile William Entenmann Memorial Novice Hurdle Stakes. The National Steeplechase Association rating for each starter is in parentheses after the horse’s name. A higher number would receive more weight in a handicap race. For reference, the highest rated horse is Rawnaq (162), next is Scorpiancer (138), entered in Race #2 The Lonesome Glory.

1-Miguel Grau. (120) Up the track 5th beaten 11 lengths on 8/3 at Saratoga where he did no running. Won by 10 lengths against a weak field at Suffolk on 7/9 carrying 155 high weight. Average turf speed. He runs one good race a year and with leading rider Jack Doyle taking off, he’ll be an also ran.

2-Hardrock Eleven. (121) Won Saratoga allowance hurdle on 9/1 by 3 lengths with the fastest time of the meet for the distance aided by rock hard turf. Ran a credible 2nd to #8 Detroit Blues at Saratoga on 8/17 losing by 2 lengths. Has lost to #4 Special Skills and #6 Ice It over jumps in the spring. Good turf speed and added distance helps but 156 co-high weight hurts. Use in bottom of tri and super.

3-Dye Fore. (116) Up the track 7th in Saratoga handicap 8/3. Did not finish in 2 tries over jumps in the spring. Picks up English jockey Alice Mills replacing Connor Hankin, who started USMC Officer Candidate school on 9/10, for the rest of the season for Fisher. From Equibase, Alice Mills is off the board in 5 races from 2014. Average turf speed. Strictly a pace setter for Fisher’s other runners #5 Ice It and #7 Special Skills. Throw out.

4-Share Out. (113) Finished third in Saratoga allowance hurdle on 8/24 where he saved all the ground passing tired horses late. Leading rider Jack Doyle returns choosing this runner over #1 Miguel Grau. Will have to overcome a step up in class against multiple winners over jumps. Possible bottom in tris and supers.

5-Ice It. (118) Ran 2nd in Marcellus Frost Novice Stakes at Nashville 5/14, beating #2 Hardrock Eleven and #3 Dye Fore. 3YO hurdle champion beating #6 Aquies and Saratoga hurdle winner Kensington Court. Marcellus Frost winner Tempt Me Alex did not run back. Marcellus Frost 3rd place runner African Oil refused to start as 3/2 fav at Monmouth 6/17. Top trainer Fisher and 6th leading rider McDermott team up for a serious win threat. However, trainer Fisher says he may need a race and they are pointing for the Foxbrook at Far Hills 10/15. Use in exotics.

6-Aquies. (110) Three recent flat tries give him a speed edge but he still has just average turf speed. Leading owner Irv Naylor bought this one back after being claimed 7/4. Last jump race finished a good 2nd at Willowdale 5/15 while getting an 8 pound weight concession from the rest of the field. Gets in light again with 144. Trainer Kathy Neilson is better with timber runners than hurdle runners. Gets 5th place regular rider Gallaghan back in the saddle. He has the most starts over hurdles (8) of any 4YO in training. Age old handicapping conundrum…Experience vs. Talent….Could land underneath in exotics at a huge price.

7-Special Skills. (125) Two honest handicap efforts at Saratoga, winning by 2on 8/31 and finishing 3rd on 8/3. Top Trainer Fisher and 4th leading rider Paddy Young will try to negotiate the 156 co-high weight to victory. If this was a starter handicap, he would be carrying 158 and #2 Hardrock Eleven would have 152. Excellent turf speed gives a tactical advantage for the final 5 furlong flat run. Possible winner and a must use in exotics.

8-Detroit Blues (GB). (120) Impressive Saratoga hurdle winner in first US try on 8/17, defeating #2 Hardrock Eleven. Handicapper changed his rating from 112 (which was his rating in England) to 120 after his win. According to trainer Ricky Hendricks, he wasn’t even tired after the race and jockey Sean McDermott said he never asked him to run, leaving plenty in the tank. McDermott takes off because he is under contract to Trainer Jack Fisher. 3rd leading rider Geraghty gets mount. Pointing for this race since Saratoga. Good turf speed. Top choice.

Projected order of finish:

8-7-2-5-4-6-1-3

For betting purposes:
A) 8-7
B) 2-5
C) 4-6