Japan Dec 24/25

[Kitan]

Currently on the train to Nakayama Racecourse for the Arima Kinen...trying to save battery but here are some quick thoughts

R1: #16 took money and showed speed on debut, now cuts back and switches to dirt (by Street Sense). Sheikh Mohammed runner.

R2: #5 ran well enough in his lone dirt route last out off a small layoff (by Pyro) and #3 has taken money and ran decently in both starts (Empire Maker). 7, 12, and 13 underneath.

R3: #12 ran well on debut over this course and switches to Lemaire. 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 11, 15 behind.

R4: #3 should handle the dirt and the distance, just depends on if he's got the ability but the price will be right. #12 also bred well for the conditions. 7, 13, and 14 have good quality families but may prefer either turf or further.

R5: Top class baby race with lots of value. #6's dam was a champ and although her other foals have been average this looks winnable. #8 is a long shot chance suited to the conditions if the ability is there. 12 and 13 have some hidden pedigree for this. 4 and 7 appear to have the quality but the distance may stretch. 10's dam was a 3yo filly champ in Argentina. 5 is the early fav but the dam was an NY-bred dirt sprinter.

R6: #8 ignore the race in the mud and the form is good. Handles the track as well. #11 the drop is class didn't do the trick to bring back the form but maybe the freshening has. 9, 12, 14, and 16 are consistent.

R7: #13 3yo was in way over his head last out and this is more reasonable. Ditto for #7 who also handles the course well.

R8: #2 loves the course and distance and switches to Iwata. May get too far back but other than that what's not to like? #12 could wire them on the upgrade to Hamanaka.

R9: #6 comes from the classiest of families and kicked strongly to win on debut. Looks the main danger to the undefeated fav (#2).

R10: #11 race sets up perfectly for the 3yo to swoop late. #1 won't get an easy lead this time but should still have enough to hold on for a minor placing. #12 my complete bomb underneath. 2, 4, 6, 16 exotics use.

R11: #8 looks a shot in the last on the upgrade to Tanabe.

Good luck and Happy Holidays!