8/2: Saratoga (Day 11; Shine Again)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Alcazar de Maram 5-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Any Given Royal 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Invocation 3-1 WON ($6.10)
Exotics Use: #1 Kremlin 10-1 7th


2nd: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Sound the Horns 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #1 Top Brass 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Blaze'n Prospector 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Avast Matey 4-1 4th

$2 Exacta (4-1) Paid $15.70
$1 Trifecta (4-1-2) Paid $66.75
$1 Superfecta (4-1-2-3) Paid $139.50


3rd: S/ALW, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Usually dislike starter ALW's, but this is a really nice group..

Most Likely: #8 Astounding 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Carbon Data 7-2 5th
Best Value: #3 He's Cheeky 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Cite 6-1 3rd


4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Danny Gargan has done a really nice job steadily racing 5yo Northern Screamer into success over a 10 month period from a $14k claim through April-June wins for $10k, $12.5k, S/ALW and N1X. Cuts back and drops in for $20k today for win-hungry Midwest TB's..

Most Likely: #6 Northern Screamer 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Lady Paradime 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Call Her Karma 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Bon Heir 9-2 3rd


5th: MCLM/$75k, 3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD)

May need to lean on Chad Brown dropper because after him, there's perhaps 8 equally likely candidates. Fun race for .50 tris and dime super spreads..

Most Likely: #2 Let's Get Loud 5-2 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #11 O Captainmycaptain 20-1 9th
Next Best: #4 My Man Jax 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Wingman 8-1 5th


6th: MSW, 3+, 7f (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Devine Union 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Harkness 8-1 WON ($14.80)
Next Best: #5 Opined 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Parade 6-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

2: 1-4 (A), 2-3 (B), 5-6 (C)
3: 3-5-7-8 (A), - (B), 4-6-12 (C)
4: 6 (A), - (B), 1-3-7 (C)
5: 2 (A), 4-11 (B), 5-6-7-8 (C)
6: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x4x1x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

3: 3-5-7-8 (A), - (B), 4-6-12 (C)
4: 6 (A), - (B), 1-3-7 (C)
5: 2-4-11 (A), 5-6-7-8-10-12 (B), - (C)
6: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x9x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 4x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


7th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Iron Power 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Startup Nation 7-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Leavemeatthegate 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Nevisian Sky 9-2 2nd


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Church Social 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Lucky Long 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Homeland Security 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Violet Blue 6-1 8th


9th: 5th Shine Again, F&M-4+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Carina Mia 2-1 WON ($3.10)
Next Best: #1 Going for Broke 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Absatootly 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Birdatthewire 6-1 5th


10th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f

Best Value: #10 New Pass 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Purely Lucky 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Imperfect Union 3-1 5th
Super Add: #7 March X Press 4-1 WON ($12.40)


P5 Grid:

6: 2-5-7 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
7: 5-11 (A), 3-7 (B), 2-8-10 (C)
8: 4-9 (A), - (B), 5-7 (C)
9: 3 (A), - (B), 1-2-5-6-8 (C)
10: 9-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-5-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x2x1x2 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 3x2x2x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

7: 3-5-7-11 (A), - (B), 2-8-10 (C)
8: 4-9 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
9: 3 (A), 1 (B), 2-5-6-8 (C)
10: 9-10 (A), 5-7 (B), 3-4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 4x2x1x2 = $16 ($8 for. 50)


Good luck!
Steve