9/21/17: Belmont Steeplechase

[Flatterer]

Steeplechase returns to Belmont for the William Entenmann Memorial Novice stakes and the Grade 1 Lonesome Glory.

Lonesome Glory was a 5 time Eclipse award winner during the 90’s and was inducted in the Hall of Fame in 2005. I saw him break his maiden at Fair Hill October 1991 and in a memorable race lose to Warm Spell in the Breeders Cup Grand National at Far Hills October 1994.

Both races are on the inner turf course. The Entenmann is run at 4 turns over 9 fences and the Lonesome Glory is 4 turns and 10 fences. There are 3 fences on the front stretch and 3 fences on the back with a ½ mile flat run after the last fence. In the last 4 steeplechase races at Belmont, only 1 horse (Hardrock Eleven in the Entenmann last year) went wire to wire. Front runners are passed over the last jump or in the ½ mile flat run.

Here is a review of the runners with NSA handicap rating (higher the better).

In the Entenmann:

1-No Wunder (126) - Handicap winner at Saratoga ran 3 times at the Spa and picks up 9 pounds from his last race. Doyle is on for Voss. Has best flat turf speed in the race. Must use on top and in exotics.

2-New Member (128)-Ran 3rd in last race and was DQ’d for jumping inside a beacon the race before at the Spa. Gets champion Irish steeplechase jockey Danny Mullins for Fisher. Was well beaten by #6 Moscato in last. Use in 3rd or 4th spot for the super.

3-Lachares (133) - Recent import with busy 2017 schedule in Ireland with three wins, a second, and four third-place finishes. Gelded and adding Lasix for the first time. These runners usually need 1 or 2 races in the US before showing promise. Pass

4-Surprising Soul (129) – Ran a disappointing 3rd in the Kiser at the Spa and had to be pulled up after being kicked and getting a cut on his leg in the Walsh. Slow turf speed. May run 4th in super.

5-Mutasaawy (121) – Nice win in a slow time at Spa in last. He has been competitive in all 3 jump tries. Excellent turf speed gets acid test and no break in weights. Seems overmatched but can land underneath in exotics with his best effort.

6-Moscato (135) – Consistent over jumps and emerged as the best Novice runner with a win in the Walsh at the Spa. Top handicap rating, dynamic trio of leading owner/trainer/rider, excellent tactical speed make him the most likely winner. Must use on top and in exotics.

7-Zio Elio (115) – Dalton’s are red hot after winning the Turf Writers with Diplomat at 17/1. He ran 2nd losing by a neck in the fastest race at the Spa this summer but then lost by 29 in the Walsh. Beat #6 Moscato to break his maiden. Carrying light weight of 144, he gets 9 – 12 pounds from the field which makes him dangerous. Slow turf speed. Possible exotics use but not sure where to place him.

8-Kensington Court (120) – Off since Spa win in 2016. Only chance he has is to go early, open up by 30 lengths and pray. Did not run in 2017 Spring point to point races. Hopefully, he won’t hurt anyone when he crashes and burns over the last or penultimate fence on the backstretch. Throw out.

Race shape: #8 Kensington Court will open a 30 length lead and the chase pack will be led by #2 New Member with #4 Surprising Soul with #6 Moscato close up. #7 Zio Elio will save ground and be next in line. Turf speed kicks in after the last with #6 Moscato and #1 No Wunder closing.

Selections: A) 6-1 B) 7

In the Lonesome Glory:

1-All the Way Jose (132) – He was a respectable 3rd in the Turf Writers in last at the Spa. Jockey Brion strangled him out of the Smithwick. He gets in light at 142 and distance helps for Sheppard. Must use in exotics.

2-Swansea Mile (130) – Won the Smithwick for Hendricks and was one paced in the Turf Writers. Light weight again for this runner at 144. Good turf speed and jockey Mitchell returns. Use underneath in exotics.

3-Charminister (131) – He was terrible in the Smithwick but runs competitive at Belmont. The 11 year old is over the hill but 142 light weight makes him an exotics use.

4-Simenon (131) – He pulled up in the Smithwick and appears to be overmatched. Throw out.

5-Hinterland (139) – The leading team of Fisher/McDermott have a big chance. He ran 2nd to Scorpiancer in the biggest spring race and has pointed for this race since Nashville. Must use on top and in exotics.

6-Mr Hot Stuff (136) – Has lost to several runners in this race in his last 2 tries. No excuse for poor run in Turf Writers. Trainer Fisher and jockey Mullins give him a shot to hit the board. Possible 4th in the super.

7-Casino Markets (134) – He had a dismal run in the Turf Writers. May improve with 2nd try in the U.S. but must improve dramatically. Throw Out.

8-Modem (140) – Highest rating and high weight of 156 are a lot to overcome but he has run well in his last 2 Spa tries. Must use on top and underneath in exotics.

Race shape: #3 Charminister and #1 All the Way Jose will set the early slow pace. They will be crawling early. Lack of pace makes this a scramble on the backstretch the last time and for the last ½ mile flat run.

Selections: A) 8 - 1 - 5 B) 3

Good Luck at the races!!!