6/2: Churchill Downs (4th-11th; P6 $300k Force); Penn National (6th-9th)

[Kasept]

PENN NATIONAL


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: 1st Penn Ladies Dash, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Outstanding card, and specifically the all turf/all stakes P4, threatened by weather..

Given the depth of the rest of the sequence, you would like to slip by this first leg with just Morticia and Just Talkin..

Most Likely: #6 Morticia 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #8 Just Talkin 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Rocky Policy 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Assail 8-1 4th


7th: 6th Penn Oaks, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)

VERY well-matched group with the favorites not all that more likely than the prices..

Best Value: #4 Raucous 5-1 6th
Next Best: #1e Dubb ownership entry 2-1 2nd/5th
Exotics Use: #5 Treasuring 5-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Goodthingstaketime 3-1 3rd


8th: 48th PA Governor's Cup, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Pure Sensation a huge SCR out this. May not be enough speed to help Kate Demasi's Dubini (10-1) get up, but he's 4 for 6 at the 5f trip and the price I want to use to boost vertical plays. Demasi is one of the best kept training secrets around..

Most Likely: #10 Ray's Warrior 10-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Dubini 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Oak Bluffs 5-1 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #11 Triple Burner 10-1 6th


9th: 6th Penn Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Silly ML on Hawkish who should sit a rocking chair trip behind the speed. Maraud obvious off eye-opening American Turf score. Weaver goes 1st Lasix in 2nd off break with Way Early and he's hit 7 boards in 9 tries with that move (2 W's)..

Most Likely: #6 Hawkish 5-1 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #3 Maraud 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Way Early 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Therapist 3-1 6th


P4 Grid:

6: 6-8 (A), - (B), 2-4-7-9 (C)
7: 1-4-5 (A), 2-3-6 (B), - (C)
8: 4-10 (A), 3-11 (B), 6-7-9 (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), - (B), 2-4-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,6,9,11/2/3/6,7) Paid $111.90



CHURCHILL 'DOWNS AFTER DARK'


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$300k partial jackpot P6 force out starts here..

Most Likely: #5 Divine Desire 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 King Abner 5-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Taruca 8-1 3rd


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Awe Emma the famed $2,000,000 KEE November Sale weanling (War Front/Awesome Maria) that Willis Horton bought shortly after Take Charge Brandi fetched $6,000,000. Long string of works for what Asmussen undoubtedly wants to make a successful debut..

Most Likely: #1 Awe Emma 2-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Pachinko 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Don't Tell Marge 6-1 WON ($28.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Tofino 4-1 3rd


6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Absence of a clear pacesetter..

Most Likely: #4 Irish Freedom 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #1 Krewe Chief 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Big Dollar Bill 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Hollywood Handsome 7-2 4th


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Complimenti 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Gliztnglamour 8-5 6th
Exotics Use: #6 The Girl Factor 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Thesweetesttaboo 8-1 3rd


8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Yeesh.. Whole field of lightly-raced turf fillies is separated by about 4 lengths.

Best Value: #1 Don't Stop Maria 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Victory Garden 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Flat Meadow 5-2 4th
Super Add: #5 First Kiss 12-1 8th


9th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Mississippi runs alone after SCR of Solomini..

Most Likely: #1 Mississippi 3-5 6th
Best Value: #5 Fort Peck 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Limation 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Mr Freeze 12-1 WON ($20.00)


P6 Grid:

4: 5-7 (A), - (B), 1-3-6 (C)
5: 1-4 (A), 3 (B), 2-5-7 (C)
6: 1-4 (A), 2-3 (B), 5-6 (C)
7: 2-4 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
8: 1-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 2-4-6 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x2x4x2 = 256 x .20 = $51.20
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2x2 = 64 x .20 = $12.80


10th: 30th Aristides (G3), 3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Mr. Crow 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Wilbo 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #7 Chief Cicatrix 6-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Awesome Saturday 7-2 4th


11th: 3rd Mighty Beau, 3+, 5f-T (Hi-5)

Has SCR'd down to 6 rendering ML irrevelant..

Most Likely: #6 The Critical Way 6th
Next Best: #3 Long On Value WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #8 Fort Fortitude 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Hogy 4th


P5 Grid:

7: 2-4 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
8: 1-7 (A), 3 (B), 2-4-5-6 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
10: 3-5 (A), 1-6-7 (B), - (C)
11: 3-6 (A), - (B), 8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

8: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), 2-4-5-6 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
10: 3-5-7 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
11: 3-6 (A), 8-10 (B), 5-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x5x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve