7/28: Saratoga (Vanderbilt/Jim Dandy) ~ 1st/2nd/6th are OFF/TURF

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P5, P3, DD)

This ends up being just as interesting off the turf as it would have been on..

Most Likely: #6 Party With Friends 6th
Next Best: #11 Carter Cat WON ($5.90)
Best Value: #12 Paper Clip 8th
Super Add: #5 Halladay DH-3rd


2nd: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Poshsky 3rd
Next Best: #7 St. Louis Guy WON ($12.80)
Exotics Use: #2 California Swing 2nd
Super Add: #3 Western Reserve 4th


3rd: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Gray Nile 6-1 WON ($13.60)
Next Best: #5 Consensus Thinking 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Air On Fire 5-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Love Nest 8-1 5th


4th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Satisfy 7-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #4 Fair Regis 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1e Serpe entry 10-1 3rd/6th
Exotics Use: #9 American Mission 12-1 5th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Looks like a serious set of Saratoga colts with Brown, Calhoun, Mott (2), Casse, Asmussen, Pletcher represented. Only #5 Olympic Express and #11 (AE) Mucho have made debuts..

Best Value: #6 Macho Citizen 8-1: Calhoun sends half to Promise Me Silver.. 10th
Next Best: #10 Coast 5-2: $500k Pletcher out of Baffert MGSW Mamma Kimbo.. 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Wild Medagliad'oro 8-1: Casse's Live Oak homebred working sharp.. 2nd
Super Add: #3 Aurelius Maximus 3-1: Brown for Stonestreet/Bolton; May want longer.. 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 6-11 (A), 12 (B), - (C)
2: 1-7 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
3: 3-5 (A), - (B), 7-8 (C)
4: 4-7 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
5: 6-10 (A), 3-8 (B), 5-7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

$0.50 Pick-5 (8,9,11,13/7/3/3,5,6,7/9) Paid $2,522.00 (A-A-A-A-C ~ $136 play)


P4 Grid:

2: 1-7 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
3: 3-5-8 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)
4: 4-7 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
5: 6-8-10 (A), 3-5-7 (B), 1-2-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/3/3,5,6,7/9) Paid $422.00 (A-A-A-C ~ $111 play)


6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #14 Chris and Dave WON ($7.70)
Best Value: #1 Take Notice 5th
Next Best: #9 Penalty 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Dr. Shane 2nd


7th: 26th Amsterdam (G3), 3yo, 6.5f (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Engage 8-5: Sits stalking trip.. 2nd
Next Best: #2 Promises Fulfilled 7-2: Huge Stephens try.. WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #5 Strike Power 5-1: Set for best.. 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Soutache 12-1 5th


8th: Vanderbilt (G1), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Thoroughly curious group with obvious speed players Imperial Hint & Switzerland making Spa debuts and pricey considerations Petrov (20-1), Warrior's Club (9-2) and Mr. Crow (8-1) a combined 5/4-1-0 over the surface. Imperial Hint gets better of the draw and can monitor Switzerland who will have to break running..

Most Likely: #4 Imperial Hint 6-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 Done Deal 8-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Switzerland 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Mr. Crow 8-1 4th


9th: 60th Bowling Green (G2), 4+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

Turf will be no better than yielding and with moderate pace lined up, closers may be doubly challenged. Add #5 Glorious Empire (20-1) to your exotics plays as he could take them a long way on the front end..

Best Value: #9 Manitoulin 10-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Hi Happy 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Glorious Empire 20-1 WON-DH ($21.40)
Super Add: #6 Sadler's Joy 7-2 3rd


10th: 55th Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Big opportunity for hard luck Preakness show runner Tenfold to take next step and gain plaudit..

Most Likely: #2 Tenfold 8-5 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #5 Vino Rosso 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Flameaway 7-2 3rd


11th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 9f-T

Well matched, high quality group for nightcap..

Best Value: #8 Terrabyte 20-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Reversethedecision 5-2 WON ($5.90)
Exotics Use: #4 Frippery 10-1 12th
Super Add: #11 Cash Out 8-1 6th


P5 Grid:

7: 2-3 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
8: 4 (A), 1-7 (B), 2-3-4-5-6 (C)
9: 7-9 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-2 (C)
10: 2-5 (A), - (B), 1-3-4 (C)
11: 4-6-8 (A), - (B), 5-7-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

$.50 NYRA Bets P5 (2/4/2,5/2/3,6,14) Pays $219.00


P4 Grid:

8: 1-4-7 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-5-6 (C)
9: 7-9 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-2 (C)
10: 2-5 (A), - (B), 1-3-4 (C)
11: 4-6-8 (A), 5-7-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$.50 Pick 4 (4/2,5/2/3,6,14) Pays $82.37


Good luck!
Steve