Churchill Downs Breeders' Cup Saturday November 3rd

[Kitan]

Back at it for Day 2 after barely breaking even on the late P4 yesterday...

Race 3 (F&M Sprint):
#6 Chalon: Very consistent filly whose only poor efforts have come off a long layoff or when she set a grueling pace in the Test. On paper she seems a bit vulnerable at 7f, but I'm not sure if that's the case. She was a game winner at 6.5f early in her career, and getting run down late in last year's Raven Run could be excused by the fact she was running back in two weeks.
#13 Marley's Freedom: Hard to argue with her recent form and should get a nice stalking trip with cover.
#14 Shamrock Rose: Stakes winner on debut has finally started to put together that promise in her last few. No reason she can't get a similar trip to her impressive G2 win last time out.
#12 Anonymity

Race 4 (Turf Sprint):
#8 Chanteline: Other than her tries on a sloppy main track, her only loss in the past year was when she was giving 6 lbs to the winner (#1). Her numbers fit and she can get a great stalking trip.
#1 World of Trouble
#6 Rainbow Heir
#2 Bucchero

Race 5 (Dirt Mile):
#9 Giant Expectations: Hung after making a wide move on the turn into a slow pace but it was a great prep for this as he had been off for 6.5 months. Has shown this kind of ability at times and can breakthrough this time.
#1 City of Light: There doesn't look to be a great deal of speed in this so it seems as if he can get a perfect trip on the rail. Has a great chance.
#3 Isotherm: Wasn't a complete slouch on the turf (G2 winner) and although he's yet to win on the dirt, he's had some excuses and hasn't run poorly in his last two. Debut at 6f, had a terrible trip in the BC Juvenile, and was off a long time after the SA Handicap where he also ran in front bandages so there was probably an issue there. Two back he was, for whatever reason, dueling 4 wide in a 4 horse field, and last time he was hanging with two of the favs in the Classic until the final 1/8th of a 9f race.
#4 Seven Trumpets: Three poor runs this year have come around two-turns. A perfect 3/3 over this course and the mile should suit better than the 6f of his last start.

Race 6 (F&M Turf):
#3 Wild Illusion: Have been looking for something to beat her but I can't find anything I'm confident on. She's yet to show her best stuff past 10f and will be a short price, but she just seems to outclass them. Another race where the pace doesn't seem like it will be hot and she's got the tactical speed to get a great trip.
#14 Eziyra: Has been specifically aimed for this but not done any favours by the draw as they start close to the turn.
#6 Sistercharlie: Clearly has the ability, but has to overcome the setback and is unproven on this kind of surface.
#1 Fourstar Crook

Race 7 (Sprint):
#8 Limousine Liberal: All over the place trying to get a clear path last time and now returns to his favourite track..
#9 Roy H
#2 Promises Fulfilled
#5 Imperial Hint

Race 8 (Mile):
#3 Happily: Was all the rage at this meeting last year and endured one of the worst trips in the history of the BC. Although winless this year, besides the failed blinkers experiment two back she has not run terribly. Looked to finally get it together again when rallying and just missing against a five-time G1 winner. Was meant to run at Ascot but was withdrawn after acting up a bit in the gate. Looks to get a great stalking trip and proven over a rain-affected surface.
#2 Next Shares: Quite plausible that he didn't care for the Del Mar surface, but besides that is in the form of his life. In with a great shot if he can maintain that.
#13 Gustav Klimt: Consistently putting in good performances and his best races have arguably come on heavy ground.
#5 Oscar Performance: Got an easy lead at Woodbine but showed in the Poker that he doesn't need that. If he puts in his best effort he's there with a strong chance.
Originally liked #6 and #14 but concerned about them on a wet track.

Race 9 (Distaff):
#1 Champagne Problems: It's beginning to click with her as she starts to blossom towards the end of her 4yo campaign. No shame in bobbing out versus #10 two back and although she was beaten by that same rival again last time, she got buried and shuffled on the rail at the critical point of the race. If she steps forward again it can be bombs away.
#11 Monomoy Girl: Ultra game filly who just does not let them pass her. I know she won over the course and distance from post 14, but hard to have her as the main play at those odds drawn widest again.
#2 Abel Tasman: Hard to read her. On her day she'd be tough to beat but throws in clunkers every now and then, even besides her apparent illness last time.
#3 La Force: Extremely consistent since finding her feet on the dirt. Even though Unique Bella was confidently ridden two back she still came strongly to get close to her. Don't think she was fully tuned last time and has a shot to be there at the finish.

Race 10 (Turf):
#5 Magical: Touted as O'Brien's Oaks horse earlier in the year before encountering a setback, and ran on encouragingly in the Arc, her first try past 9f. Backed that up with a superb win in a strong field at Ascot on wet ground. Looks the main danger.
#2 Enable: I don't necessarily believe the Arc-BC Turf winner curse as most of those came to the BC after a grueling race at the end of their season. Not the case for this wonder filly, but that actually brings up another slight concern. She wasn't 100% last time and the race reportedly took quite a bit out of her. She's the one to beat and you can't leave her out, but no value to be had with her.
#12 Waldgeist: Running out of his skin this year and put in a great performance in the Arc. Did have a bit of traffic trouble but don't think it was as much as it's being made out to be. Has to take another step forward here, but he definitely can.
#13 Hunting Horn: Arc performance wasn't horrible, and he only finished that far back because he took a rough squeeze at the 3/16ths. Two back he was in a driving stretch duel with Brundtland, who himself was desperately unlucky not to win a G1 last weekend. He was pace compromised in both prior trips Stateside, for opposite reasons in each run, but before that was showing good progress in terms of performances and numbers. I think he's got a great chance to hit the board at a huge price.
Also using #10 at monster odds underneath.

Race 11 (Classic):
#11 Mind Your Biscuits: I was totally against him earlier in his career going this distance but he looks to have proved me wrong. Not disgraced when going two-turns for the first time in the slop and although he didn't beat much last time, he did so impressively with numbers to back it up. Versatile and can sit anywhere in the pack and you know he'll be coming late.
#7 West Coast: Seems a bit forgotten about. Had only a month of works before the Awesome Again, where he got a good burner setting quick fractions. His prior American races make him a huge overlay.
#9 Mendelssohn: This has been his main target since his debacle here six months ago. Wasn't fully cranked last time out yet battled gamely. Can step it up further this time.
#12 Axelrod: Has improved with every start this year and I liked his run in the PA Derby. Wasn't going to get to the winner (#6) who was there through slowish fractions throughout but kept grinding away and hit the line well. 10f should suit.

$0.60 Middle Pick Four
Race 4: 6, 8, 11
Race 5: 1, 3, 4, 9, 10
Race 6: 1, 3, 6, 14
Race 7: 2, 8, 9
$108.00

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 8: 2, 3
Race 9: 1, 2, 3, 10, 11
Race 10: 2, 5, 12
Race 11: 6, 7, 9, 11, 12
$90 + cover 5,13/1,2,3,10,11/5/7,9,11 ($18) = $108 total

Good luck!