Rider Question

[LITF]

Today in the 4th race at Santa Anita, Surfing Star was taken back off of a 49+ pace while previously being either on or just a few lengths off of a 46 opening half. His last race he was 3 lengths off a 46.1 opening half. The two before that he was on the lead through a half in 46.2 and 46.

My question is, how do you handicap this race? Is this just an egregious error on Aaron Gryder’s part for misjudging a pace that went in 49+ all but handing the victory to the front running El Huerfano? Or is this a horse going off form? I thought all things considered he ran pretty well to make a decent race of it late. I tend to think it’s not a horse going off form and more a jockey error. But I don’t know how to judge riders since I’ve, obviously, never been in that position.

Any insight would be helpful as I struggle with these kind of races and more than often misplay them when the horses run back.