2/15: Fair Grounds (10th-13th); X-C P5 (AQ-TAM-OP)

[Kasept]

FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


10th: Fair Grounds (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Synchrony 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Factor This 8-1 WON ($18.80)
Next Best: #5 Dontblamerocket 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Midnight Tea Time 12-1 4th


11th: Rachel Alexandra (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Nothing clever to say here. British Idiom has trained right along after brief post-BC break and should get a catbird seat behind the speed(s)..

Most Likely: #6 British Idiom 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Finite 2-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #3 Swiss Skydiver 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Ursula 8-1 7th


12th: Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Enforceable appears to get pace to chase and an extra 16th to work with..

Most Likely: #8 Enforceable 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Silver State 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Moon Over Miami 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Digital 6-1 5th


13th: Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 9f (Hi-5)

He has a tendency to wait on foes, but think Anneau d'Or is simply best of this group and hope blinkers provides definition for his obvious ability. Host of possibilities after top choice, but Mr. Big News looks sneaky here for Chet Thomas & Calhoun at 20-1. By Giant's Causeway out of a Galileo mare (!), he's improved with every start and should relish added distance. Ideal 'underneath' key type..

Most Likely: #8 Anneau d'Or 9-5 9th
Best Value: #3 Mr. Big News 20-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Lynn's Map 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Modernist 8-1 WON ($27.60)
Super/Hi-5: #10 Finnick the Fierce 10-1 7th


P4 Grid:

10: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), 6-12 (C)
11: 6-7 (A), 2-3 (B), 1 (C)
12: 2-8 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
13: 8 (A), 3-9 (B), 1-5-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x2x1 = $12 ($6 for .50)



CROSS COUNTRY P5


POST-SCRATCHES


AQUEDUCT 7th:

Wild start to very tough sequence. Should be plenty of pace here..

Best Value: #6 Bustin Hoffman 5-1 13th
Next Best: #8 Bulwark 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Centrist 12-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Ten Twenty Nine 12-1 6th


TAMPA 8th: Pelican, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Mucho returns here for Mott while Hofburg comes back at FG in the Mineshaft. Note that Ray Mamone & Luis Carvajal potentially have a new Imperial Hint in Debbie's Passion..

Best Value: #2 Debbie's Passion 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Killybegs Captain 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #9 He Hate Me 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Mucho 9-2 4th


TAMPA 9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Another tricky read involving barn changes, surface switches, long layoff returnees, et al..

Most Likely: #7 Bucky's Drama 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Sanguine 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Miahsolomiah 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Flaming Indy 20-1 6th


OAKLAWN 6th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Alpha Sixty Six 2-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Play the Wildcard 9-2 7th
Next Best: #2 Something Natural 9-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Life On the Road 8-1 3rd


TAMPA 10th: Minaret, F&M-4+, 6f (DD, Hi-5)

In a rough sequence, would be nice to lean on GSW (graded stakes winner) Lady's Island who faced males last time in the SunMill Sprint cross-state. She's the speed of the speed but pressure could come in waves with Midtown Rose, Ountsville & Proposition all possessing early lick..

Most Likely: #3 Lady's Island 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #9 Into Chocolate 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Midtown Rose 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Boujie Girl 8-1 8th


P5 Grid:

1: 6-8 (A), 7-12 (B), 1-3 (C)
2: 2-7 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
3: 1-7-8 (A), - (B), 3-5-9 (C)
4: 2-7-9 (A), - (B), 1-3-4 (C)
5: 3 (A), - (B), 6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve