5/30: Churchill Downs (6th-11th)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 Tabled 6-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Tiesto 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Buy Me Candy 6-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Strong Tide 30-1 5th


7th: Winning Colors (G3), F&M-4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Mia Mischief 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Princess Causeway 12-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Break Even 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Bell's the One 15-1 WON ($28.20)


8th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Ashiham 8-5 4th
Best Value: #3 Mau Mau 10-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Aztec Empire 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 What a Country 10-1 WON ($36.80)


9th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Hidden Facts 4-1 6th-DQ'd from 2nd
Best Value: #10 Whimsical Muse 10-1 WON ($52.00)
Next Best: #6 Bingwa 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Dixieincandyland 9-2 4th


10th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Fearless 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #10 Gun It 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Top Seed 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Twelfth Labour 20-1 8th


11th: Mint Julep (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Juliet Foxtrot 5-2 6th
Next Best: #7 Secret Message 8-1 WON ($53.40)
Best Value: #9 Varenka 12-1 11th
Exotics Use: #2 Beau Recall 4-1 9th
Super/Hi-5: #6 Nay Lady Nay 4-1 8th


P5 Grid:

7: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-9 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
9: 10-13 (A), 6 (B), 5-11 (C)
10: 7-8-10 (A), - (B), 3-9 (C)
11: 1-2-7-9 (A), - (B), 3-6-11 (C)

All A's: 1x2x2x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
C Backups: 24 (With 1-5: 1x2x2x3x4) + 16 (With 3-9: 1x2x2x2x4) + 18 (With 6: 1x2x2x3x3) = $58


P4 Grid:

8: 3-9 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
9: 10-13 (A), 6 (B), 5-11 (C)
10: 7-8-10 (A), - (B), 3-9 (C)
11: 1-2-7-9 (A), - (B), 3-6-11 (C)

All A's: 2x2x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
C Backups: 24 (With 5-11: 2x2x3x4) + 16 (With 3-9: 2x2x2x4) + 18 (With 6: 2x2x3x3) = $58

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/10/7/7) Paid $4,756.10


Understanding the C Backup plays:

8: No C's
9: 5-11 (Play: AxCxAxA ~ 3-9/5-11/7-8-10/1-2-7-9) $24
10: 3-9 (Play: AxAxCxA ~ 3-9/10-13/3-9/1-2-7-9) $16
11: 3-6-11 (Play: AxAxAxC ~ 3-9/10-13/7-8-10/3-6-11) $18


Good luck!
Steve