8/5: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

[Kasept]

SARATOGA – 8/5/20
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 2- 1st #8 MINE THE COIN 2ND #7 KING OF AMERICAN 3RD #2 ICY DUDE

#8 MINE THE COIN is a question mark distance-wise, but enters in strong form and can be forwardly placed. The tepid choice in a race that offers little appeal. #7 KING OF AMERICAN has no distance limitations, but is slow. He is a one-run type who’ll need the pace to heat up and you’ll get a very attractive price here. #2 ICY DUDE is another slow, plodding type and he will have no issue with this distance. If there’s any pace to speak of, this son of First Dude will be in line to benefit.


Race 3- 1st #5 MORE GRAYTFUL 2ND #4 LUNA’S IN CHARGE 3RD #2 THREE JOKERS

#5 MORE GRAYTFUL had a very tough trip two back on the dirt and is a threat now that this race has been rained off the turf. He will wear blinkers and that should sharpen his early energy. Live price player. #4 LUNA’S IN CHARGE rallied stoutly to snag the place dough last time in his turf debut and is arguably the most accomplished dirt horse in the field. If he runs back to his 2019 maiden win, he’ll visit the winner’s circle again today. #2 THREE JOKERS will attract support as the lone MTO in the field and his 2YO dirt races make him the one to beat. Whether he has moved forward as a 3YO is debatable, but you have to include him on a P5 ticket here.

Race 4- 1st #1 GOLDEN AWARD 2ND #2 BELLERA 3RD #4 NONNA MADELINE

#1 GOLDEN AWARD is the one to beat if she chooses to finish the race. That’s been a sticking point of late, but when she puts forth her best she’s too much for this bunch. The inside post should put her in an ideal spot stalking the pace. #2 BELLERA ran in spots last time out when no match for Dunbar Road, one of this division’s leaders. She can be effective rating just off of stablemate #4 NONNA MADELINE. That daughter of Candy Ride is the quickest on paper in here and should take command into the first turn. Her recent improvement is notable and you’ll get a square price.

Race 5- 1ST #6 NO MO’ SPENDING 2ND #5 SUMMER BREW 3RD #9 ROSSA VELOCE

#6 NO MO’ SPENDING has the massive advantage of experience and actually ran respectably on debut. She was bet that day in a big field at Churchill and should move forward today, as most 2nd timers do. #5 SUMMER BREW doesn’t have much pedigree but fetched 42k at auction last year as a daughter of a modest sire. She appears to be training well for a hot barn that took a 2YO turf route here on Saturday. #9 ROSSA VELOCE is another with a spirited worktab and she is out of a dam who won over 100k. The barn scored earlier at this meet with a 2YO debuting runner.



Race 6- 1st #3 PLAYWRIGHT 2ND #5 CONTROL GROUP 3RD #1-1A ENTRY

#3 PLAYWRIGHT had a tough trip when beaten as the favorite last time out and now goes first off a claim by Linda Rice. This barn is 34% with dirt routers first off of claims ($2.21 ROI) and the pace should help this late-running son of Super Saver. #5 CONTROL GROUP is the one to catch fresh off a win against lesser. He was claimed from that race by the suddenly streaking Orlando Noda, who inexplicably has 4 wins at this meet. If he runs back to his last he’s a threat to go the distance. The coupling of #1 TWISTED TOM and #1A I LOVE JAXSON has little to offer in terms of value, but both have run races on numerous occasions that would win this thing.

Race 7- 1st #1 BLACK MAGIC WOMAN 2ND #5 HARLEM HEIGHTS 3RD #4 APURATE

#1 BLACK MAGIC WOMAN is apparently training beautifully and is a sister of Grade I winner Magnum Moon. This filly drew poorly, but she can overcome the inside post if able to break quickly. #5 HARLEM HEIGHTS was wide last time out when rallying from off the pace and she wound up coming up wanting late. She goes 2nd off a layoff today and can improve, especially if the top pick gets hooked up in a pace battle. #4 APURATE returns from a layoff for Todd Pletcher, and we’ve seen these types do quite well at this meet. He is 41% with maiden dirt sprinters off 180+ day breaks ($2.18 ROI) and this gal deserves another shot on dirt.

Race 8- 1st #7 PROMPT 2ND #2 INTREPID HEART 3RD #8 HAN SENSE

#7 PROMPT is facing considerably weaker competition than he has in recent tries and is at a level where he can be successful. There’s enough speed to set up his late bid and he will be a fair price in the most competitive race of the day. #2 INTREPID HEART won last time out against tougher and he now moves in for a tag. This is not an encouraging move from a class perspective, but his connections long gave up on recouping even half of their colossal 750k investment. #8 HAN SENSE ran a bang-up race last time out when second after contesting a wicked pace. He is drawn poorly, but has the speed to get over and avoid going too wide into the turn.

Race 9- 1st #2 TRAIPSING 2ND #3 ESPRESSO SHOT 3RD #6 FOXTAIL

#2 TRAIPSING is bred for dirt and ran well in her lone try on a synthetic surface. There’s little form in here for dirt and she will be a fair enough price. #3 ESPRESSO SHOT is an open company stake winner on dirt and looms a prohibitive favorite in here. She hails from a red-hot barn and will be moving in the right direction late. #6 FOXTAIL is 2-2 on dirt and should be close to the pace from the outset. If she improves off of either of those performances she’ll be a major player.

Race 10- 1st #6 ADORABLE MAYA 2ND #9 BEYOND BROWN 3RD #2 WOMEN NOT EASY

Over-under of 1:56 for this affair where #6 ADORABLE MAYA gets the nod even if this is not a reasonable distance. She has the best dirt form of an ugly lot. #9 BEYOND BROWN is a candidate to get the distance without issue and she ran credibly on a fast dirt track at the Spa as a 2YO. #2 WOMEN NOT EASY will be forwardly placed and deserves one more shot on dirt given the hot pace she contested in March at Aqueduct.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 144-29-26-23 $190.60