8/29: Saratoga (6th-11th; X-C P5)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA ~ CROSS COUNTRY PICK 5


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: Saranac (G3), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Good group of grassy sophs including Chad Brown import that has made very positive impression working towards US debut. Fact that he liked soft & heavy ground in France could bode well here..

Most Likely: #4 L'Imperator 5-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Embolden 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Bodecream 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Vanzzy 7-2 8th


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (X-C P5 Leg A, Empire 6, P3, DD)

Excellent Cross Country P5 starts here with what looks like a classic loaded Spa baby event. Richie Vega (#8 Jimmy the Kid) is better with 2nd timers, but note visit to town from Philly with Runhappy colt looking for shot at $100k breeder award. Working well at PRX..

Most Likely: #10 Happymac 5-2: $360k Asmussen/Helligbrodt totes gate blast in for debut.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Highly Motivated 7-2: Sharp drilling Klarman Into Mischief homebred.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Newbomb 3-1: Rail drawn Pletcher Speightstown firster half to St. Joe Bay.. 3rd
Super Add: #8 Jimmy the Kid 15-1 6th


MONMOUTH 9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 12f-OFF THE TURF (X-C P5 Leg B)

Most Likely: #8 Terry's Charm WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #9 So High 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Decisive Triumph 4th


WOODBINE 7th: Ontario Colleen, 3yo-F, 1m-T (X-C P5 Leg C, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Avie's Samurai 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Fly So Pretty 10-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Two Sixty 9-2 4th


7th: Amsterdam (G2), 3yo, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Whole group is separated by less than 2 lengths..

Most Likely: #3 Long Weekend 9-5 5th
Next Best: #4 Premier Star 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Wonderwherecraigis 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Yaupon 8-5 WON ($4.80)


8th: Forego (G1), 4+, 7f (X-C P5 Leg D, P4, P3, DD)

Thoroughly engaging group with countless options, but note that there isn't a ton of pace signed on..

Most Likely: #4 Funny Guy 9-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Complexity 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Win Win Win 12-1 WON ($16.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Whitmore 7-2 7th


9th: Sword Dancer (G1), 4+, 12f-Inner (X-C P5 Leg E, P3, DD)

Murky bunch and sense that the ones that go forward will decide it. Intrigue comes from Motion who shows up with a mystery horse in Pedro Cara and a fresh face might be just what we're looking for versus these usual suspects..

Most Likely: #2 Aquaphobia 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Pedro Cara 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Cross Border 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Sadler's Joy 5-2 4th


CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

SAR 6: 4-10 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
MTH 9: 8-9 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
WO 7: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAR 8: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-10-11 (C)
SAR 9: 2-6-7 (A), 4-5-8 (B), 1-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (DD)

Very tricky read on this set of juvy fillies with some of the obvious firsters seemingly more turf/route meant (Always Carina/Jouster/Zainalareb). Siding more with those that have run..

Most Likely: #7 O'Gotten Girl 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Capstone Girl 20-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Spun d'Etat 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Zainalarab 7-2 Late SCR


11th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f

Big balloons in the offing here..

Best Value: #4 Bustin Scones 10-1 WON ($17.80)
Next Best: #7 Midnight Surprise 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Fight On Lucy 20-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Pot of Hunny 30-1 DNF-Clipped Heels, Fell


P5 Grid:

7: 3-4 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
8: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-10-11 (C)
9: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), 4-5-8 (C)
10: 4-7 (A), - (B), 5-8 (C)
11: 4 (A), 7 (B), 9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

8: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-10-11 (C)
9: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), 4-5-8 (C)
10: 4-7 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
11: 4-7 (A), 9-10 (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve