8/7: Saratoga (Day 18; Whitney, Test, Derby)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

High profile SAR day brings out the high profile 2yo's. Brigadier & Martini have advantage of starts, but firster Vodka Mardini out of GSW Hot City Girl and totes series of 5f drills that signal preparedness. Possibly record-breaker for Asmussen who enters the day tied for all time win tally..

Most Likely: #6 Vodka Mardini 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Brigadier General 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Martini'nmoonshine 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Imminent Smoke 12-1 6th


6th: Lure-R, 4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Flavius 3-1 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #2 Delaware 9-2 5th
Next Best: #3 Value Proposition 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Dreams of Tomorrow 8-1 4th


7th: Glens Falls (G2), F&M-4+, 12f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Three turner is devoid of speed which raises the question whether War Like Goddess will be left with too much to do. Sense that this isn't as open and shut as you might think with potential for someone to make a move that changes the dynamics. Orglandes is 2/2 with Irad Ortiz, closing both both times into slow paces. Needs to improve to win, but feels like a catalyst at the right price..

Most Likely: #3 War Like Goddess 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #4 Orglandes 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Dalika 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 My Sister Nat 3-1 2nd


8th: Test (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

A race that never disappoints with a perfect melange of 6-7f sprinters and routers turning back..

Best Value: #8 Bella Sofia 6-1: Upside yet & open air outside box.. WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #7 Search Results 5-2: An Oaks neck from being unbeaten at 6f-1m-9f.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Souper Sensational 6-1: Repeat of last scores for Mrs. Weber.. 2nd
Super Add: #4 Obligatory 4-1: Late runner qualifies to get any piece.. 5th


9th: Saratoga Derby (G1), 3yo, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Tough to argue against the invaders, including French Frankel import Soldier Rising who's been working steadily for North American debut in Clement barn and is underexposed..

Most Likely: #4 Cadillac 4-19th
Best Value: #1 Soldier Rising 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Bolshoi Ballet 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 State of Rest 10-1 WON ($44.20)


10th: Whitney (G1), 4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Tremendous quintet ~ all with 7 career wins ~ for this Handicap Division meet standard. Knicks Go has pace edge, yes, but note he comes back off Lasix, has reacted to big efforts previously, faces deepest set of foes yet and was bested by Silver State & By My Standards 60 days ago. Should be fascinating affair..

Most Likely: #4 Knicks Go 6-5 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #1 By My Standards 10-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Maxfield 8-5 2nd


All Stakes (Mandatory) P5 Grid:

6: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
8: 7-8 (A), 2-4-5 (B), - (C)
9: 1-4-6 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
10: 4 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x5x5x1 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (5-6) + $54 (1-2-5)

$0.50 Pick-5 (1,3,5,6,8,10/3/8/9/4) Paid $438.25 x 2 = $876.50


11th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (DD)

Risk Taking back here and receives 1st Lasix. 6-1? Sign me up..

Best Value: #3 Risk Taking 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Superfecto 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Danny California 5-2 WON ($15.80)
Super Add: #6 Air Attack 8-1 6th


12th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #7 Time Limit 9-2 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #10 Bay Storm 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Sussex Garden 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Risky Mischief 7-2 2nd


P5 Grid:

8: 7-8 (A), 2-4-5 (B), - (C)
9: 1-4-6 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
10: 4 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C)
11: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 3-7-10 (A), - (B), 6-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x5x1x2x3 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $54 (1-2-5) + $12 (6-11)


P4 Grid:

9: 1-4-6 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
10: 1-4 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
11: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 3-7-10 (A), - (B), 6-9-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x2x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (6-11)


Good luck!
Steve