9/11: Kentucky Downs (5th-11th)

[Kasept]

KENTUCKY DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Jazz Time Girl had solid debut and is the filly to beat, but Determined Hope (12-1) is a half to Points Offthebench/Bench points and adds blinkers (Schoenthal 40%) for 2nd start. Trobiaritz a half to stake winning Street Band and got useful bow education..

Best Value: #12 Determined Hope 12-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Jazz Time Girl 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Trobiaritz 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Texas Tiara 9-2 10th


6th: Ladies Sprint (G3), F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Venetian Harbor is marginally the filly to beat, but there's a lot of forward types signed on here. Think you want candidates that are going to move midway or later..

Most Likely: #7 Catch a Bid 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Violenza 20-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Venetian Harbor 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #4 Yes It's Ginger 12-1 9th


7th: Ladies Turf (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Princess Grace the least known nearly perfect horse in the game..

Most Likely: #2 Princess Grace 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #3 Abscond 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 She'sonthewarpath 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Dalika 9-2 2nd


8th: Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Winner would seem to come from Casa Creed, Got Stormy & Imprimis, but there's another group (Fast Boat, Gear Jockey, Born Great, Chewing Gum & Stubbins) that are in proximity for laurels and thoroughly eligible for exotics slots. Note that Fast Boat, Born Great (2), Stormy, Chewing Gum & Imprimis all own course wins. Outstanding $1,000,000 assembly..

Most Likely: #7 Casa Creed 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Born Great 15-1 12th
Next Best: #9 Got Stormy 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Gear Jockey 10-1 WON ($13.40)


P4 Grid:

5: 3-12 (A), 6-8-10 (B), - (C)
6: 4-7-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-7-9 (A), 4-12 (B), 2-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 2x4x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (2-4 in 8th): 2x4x1x2 = 16 x .50 = $8


9th: Turf Cup (G3), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)

Does Channel Cat wire this? I'm dubious. Glynn County took a sneaky step forward in the Mr. D and similar effort today can win this..

Best Value: #9 Glynn County 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Channel Cat 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Arklow 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Imperador 15-1 WON ($19.20)


10th: Franklin-Simpson (G2), 3yo, 6.5f-T (DD)

County Final's seasonal debut augurs for better today and that can win this. Tango Tango Tango and King of Miami SCR'ing and only Fauci runs off the AE's..

Best Value: #3 County Final 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Next 5-1 11th
Exotics Use: #10 Point Me By 7-2 7th
Super Add: #7 Annex 9-2 8th


11th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Murky nightcap where those that have run seem to have slight edge..

Best Value: #8 Mackenzie's Novva 12-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Close Knit 8-1 11th
Exotics Use: #7 Tuskegee Cat 6-1 10th
Super Add: #11 Long Crow 20-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #5 King Curlin 12-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

7: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-5-7-9 (A), - (B), 11-12 (C)
9: 3-9 (A), 5 (B), 1 (C)
10: 3-6 (A), 7-10 (B), 1-2 (C)
11: 1-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x4x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $12 (11-12 in 8th) + $24 (1-2 in 10th)


P4 Grid:

8: 4-5-7-9 (A), - (B), 11-12 (C)
9: 3-9 (A), 5 (B), 1 (C)
10: 3-6 (A), 7-10 (B), 1-2 (C)
11: 1-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 4x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $12 (11-12 in 8th) + $12 (1 in 9th) + $24 (1-2 in 10th)


Good luck!
Steve