9/3: Saratoga (Day 38); Del Mar (7th-11th); KY Downs (4th-11th)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: Saranac (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-Inner (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Annapolis 2-5 WON ($2.30)
Next Best: #1 Celestial City 3-1 DH-2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Fuerteventura 6-1 DH-2nd


5th: S/ALW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 King Moonracer 8-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Sugar Gray Leonard 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Drink the Wind 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Montatham 8-1 4th


6th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Champions Dream 5-2: Justify (30% FTS) o/o SW Dancinginherdreams.. WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #7 Desert Wolf 10-1: Protonico (!) colt appears well drilled for bow.. 5th
Next Best: #2 Mindtap 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Cagliostro 8-1 6th


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Elite Power 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #9 Meraas 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1a Amundson 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Payne 15-1 7th


8th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

There will be urge to boost Crupi and the 2 Motts with experience, but feels like there's a first or 3 (Instant Coffee, Briterdayzahead, Fantasist, Dubyuhnell & Shug Constitution half Juan Valdez) that can supersede them..

Best Value: #2 Briterdayzahead 15-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Rocket Can 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Instant Coffee 10-1 WON ($31.80)
Super Add: #10 Crupi 5-2 3rd


P5 Grid:

4: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 5-10 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
6: 9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-5-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-2-6-10 (A), 3-8-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x1x4x7 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A's: 1x2x1x4x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

5: 5-10 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
6: 9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-5-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-2-6-10 (A), 3-8-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x7 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A's: 2x1x4x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Thoroughly impossible group in make or break spot on the card..

Best Value: #9 Ocean Atlantique 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Analyze It 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Eyes On Target 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Monition 8-1 5th


10th: 44th Flower Bowl (G2), F&M-4+, 11f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Absolutely no pace here..

Most Likely: #4 War Like Goddess 2-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Virginia Joy 7-2 WON ($11.80)
Best Value: #2 Flanigan's Cove 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Temple City Terror 8-1 4th


P4 Grid:

7: 5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-2-6 (A), 3-10 (B), 8-9 (C)
9: 2-9-10 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
10: 4 (A), - (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x5x1 = $50 ($25 for .50)
All A's: 2x3x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)
Backups: 2x2x3x1 = $12 ($6 for .50) + 2x3x3x1 = $18 ($9 for .50)


11th: 104th Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (P3, DD)

Americanrevolution can stalk and pounce Tax & Olympiad..

Most Likely: #5 Americanrevolution 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Olympiad 2-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #7 Keepmeinmind 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 First Captain 4-1 3rd


12th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #3 Mr Breadwinner 9-2 WON ($8.10)
Next Best: #6 Patient Capital 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 One More Baby 6-1 6th
Super Add: #12 Commander Compton 10-1 10th


13th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #11 QUICK POWER NAP 5-2 WON ($4.30)
Next Best: #9 Eli Dancer 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 My Cara Mia Mine 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Rent Control 8-1 8th


P5 Grid:

9: 2-9-10 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
10: 4 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
11: 2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 11 (A), 9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x2x3x2 = $60 ($30 for .50)
All A's: 3x1x2x3x1 = $18 ($9 for .50)
Backup: 3x1x2x3x1 = $18 ($9 for .50)


P4 Grid:

10: 4 (A), 3 (B), 2-6 (C)
11: 2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 11 (A), 9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)
All A's: 1x2x3x1 = $6 ($3 for .50)
Backup (2-6 in 10th): 2x2x3x1 = $12 ($6 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (3/2/3,4,11,13/6,11) Paid $249.74 ($124.87 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve