10/7: BEL/AQU ($207k DBL P6 C/O); KEE (4th-10th)

[Kasept]

KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: ALW/N3X, 3+, 5.5f-T ($3 Turf P3/4th-8th-10th, P3, DD)

Very tricky start to $3 Turf P3 with favored Joker On Jack (3-1) & Johnny Unleashed (7-2) not having any obvious edge over the rest of the field..

Best Value: #1 Torontotoro 6-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Therideofalifetime 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Mark of the Z 15-1 WON ($14.52)
Super Add: #5 Strike Me Down 8-1 5th


$3 Turf P3 Grid (4th-8th-10th):

4: 1-2-9 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
8: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5 (A), 7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x2 = 20 x $3 = $60
All A's: 3x2x1 = 6 x $3 = $18


5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f ($1 P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Miss Mattie B 8-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Golden Sights 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Beguine 7-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Nosilverspoonhere 8-1 9th


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Briterdayzahead SCR'D exits the Instant Coffee (Futurity tomorrow) SAR MDN-breaker and is the logical fave in a murky group, but McPeek moves Sir (15-1) to the main track after an OK KY Downs debut..

Best Value: #11 Sir 15-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Liberty's Hauler 9-2 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Golden Bandit 4-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Mobster 8-1 3rd


7th: Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

O'Dwyer sets Sibelius up for a BC Sprint try here with rock solid Special Reserve & Necker Island providing early and late competition. Meanwhile, I'll go to the well (again) on constant breakout candidate Top Gunner at 10-1..

Best Value: #3 Top Gunner 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Sibelius 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Special Reserve 2-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Necker Island 7-2 6th


8th: Jessamine (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

While looking very competitive, note that this has generally been won by a top choice with California Angel ($37.60) last year the only surprise winner in the last 7 runnings (4 faves under 3-2, a 3-1 and 5-2). With that said, Ky Downs mile graduate Sabalenka (10-1) is as likely as the 5 lower priced options and will save ground for Whit Beckman & Jose Ortiz..

Best Value: #1 Sabalenka 10-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Happy Gal 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Dulcia 15-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Knockyoursocksoff 30-1 2nd


9th: Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Notably, Casse, McPeek, Cox, Motion (who all have runners here), are responsible for 8 of the last 10 Alcibiades winners (Casse 3, Cox & McPeek 2 each) ..

Most Likely: #9 Fun and Feisty 7-2 8th
Best Value: #8 Infinite Diamond 10-1 14th
Next Best: #1 Wonder Wheel 9-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #10 Kaling 6-1 11th


10th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 12f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Queen Bourbon 7-2 5th
Best Value: #7 Roughly a Diamond 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Federalist Paper 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Mia Martina 10-1 WON ($9.32)


P5 Grid:

6: 4-11 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
7: 3-5 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
8: 1-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2xx3x1x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

7: 3-5 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
8: 1-6-8 (A), 3-7-11 (B), - (C)
9: 9 (A), - (B), 1-2-8-10 (C)
10: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x1x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup: 2x3x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36


Good luck!
Steve