11/26: Churchill Downs (Stars of Tomorrow II)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ STARS II


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Notable pedigrees throughout including Lady Irene (a half to Beholder/Mendelssohn) and Medaglia Forever (Md'O out of Forever Unbridled).. Several of those that have run have some quality about them and it seems like the well bred firsters could impact as well..

Most Likely: #10 Bru Na Boinne 5-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Vahva 7-2 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #4 Lady Irene 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Market Profile 6-1 10th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Point Proven 5-1 WON ($6.50)
Next Best: #9 Spielman 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Endpoint 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Escapologist 5-1 3rd


6th: ALW/N2L, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Worthington and Deer District are forward-going and have right style to sit behind what looks like real pace. If looking for an oddball price, Scooteranddabigman is interesting with Mor Spirit turning out to be successful with turf movers (and off track runners). John Langemeir quite clever and reaches for Morales with whom he clicks at 24%..

Most Likely: #5 Worthington 3-1 WON ($9.10)
Next Best: #10 Deer District 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Scooteranddabigman 20-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Good Heart 7-2 6th


7th: Fern Creek, 2yo-F, 6.5f (Derby City P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Key of Life 1-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Twirled 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 The Great Maybe 4-1 5th


8th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Highway Robber 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Tres Soles 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Hit Show 3-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Rocket Can 7-2 2nd


9th: Ed Brown, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Mr Bob 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Top Recruit 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Powerful 5-2 WON ($7.16)
Super Add: #4 Frosted Departure 3-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

5: 7-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
8: 2-3 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

6: 5-10 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
7: 3 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
8: 2-3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x1x4x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


10th: Golden Rod (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Hoosier Philly 1-1 WON ($2.96)
Best Value: #3 American Rockette 10-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Knockyoursocksoff 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Defining Purpose 15-1 5th


11th: Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), 2yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Instant Coffee 5-2 WON ($5.08)
Next Best: #9 Cyclone Mischief 8-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Gigante 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Curly Jack 3-1 2nd


12th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (Hi-5)

Itzos the Rachel Alexandra half for Larry Best & Paolo Lobo..

Best Value: #2 King d'Oro 8-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Mobster 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Itzos 4-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Talladega 3-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

8: 2-3 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
9: 3-6 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
10: 4 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
11: 8-9 (A), - (B), 1-4-5 (C)
12: 2-3-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x2x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x1x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backups ($36): 2x2x1x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3 in the 10th) + 2x2x1x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-4-5 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

9: 3-6 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
10: 4 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
11: 4-8-9 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
12: 2-3-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x5x4 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 2x1x3x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: 2x1x3x4 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3 in the 10th)


Good luck!
Steve