9/21: Aqueduct ($86k P6 C/O)

[Kasept]

BELMONT AT AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: OC/C, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Maniacally difficult sequence. Even if logicals win, will pay handsomely given all the compelling necessary coverage..

Any of the 7 (SCR #1a) can win. And this is the first leg!

Most Likely: #2 Kuramata 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Tut's Revenge 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Duke of Hazzard 3-1 WON ($5.50)
Exotics Use: #6 Winfromwithin 4-1 4th


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

A dozen maidens that are thoroughly impossible to decipher. Look at Jane Lyon home bred Nyxed for instance, who is first time with Linda Rice after nearly a year away and a half to GSW & G1 placed Moon Over Miami. She's 12-1 making her 3yo debut. Can win. Use as many as you can afford..

Best Value: #5 Nyxed 12-1 4th-DQ'd to 11th
Next Best: #6 Queen of the Mud 10-1 WON ($22.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Madaket's Arrow 9-2 5th
Super Add: #9 Isola 8-1 10th


6th: CLM, 3+m 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Budget tix will likely lean on Six Percent, but there are a few others that wouldn't shock. Burgee runs races that fit, but do you trust Shivmangel 6 weeks after claim? Castellano 'sees fit to ride'. Forty Two Ace, Salto de Tigre and Durkin's Call are plausible too..

Most Likely: #4 Six Percent 3-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Burgee 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2b (POE) Forty Two Ace 8-1 8th/WON ($3.30)
Exotics Use: #9 Just Call Ray 6-1 2nd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Some stakes types here and a Brant/Brown first North America in Francesco Clemente. Ribaudo's Daunt the horse to beat out of the Sword Dancer/Bowling Green tries upstate..

Most Likely: #4 Daunt 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Tide of the Sea 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Francesco Clemente 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Exact Estimate 4-1 WON ($5.20)


8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #6 Radio Red 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Perfect Munnings 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Mariachi 7-2 WON ($9.00)
Super Add: #8 Big Engine 6-1 7th


9th: NY-MCLM/$25k, 3+, 8.5f-Outer

Most Likely: #11 Myles 5-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Fast Study 10-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Atlanta's Acuna 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Utamaro 8-1 12th


P6 Grid:

4: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
7: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
9: 4-11-12 (A), - (B), 7-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x1x4x3 = $96
All A's: 2x2x1x1x2x3 = $24
Backup (A-A-A-A-A-C): 2x2x1x1x2x3 = $24 (7-9-10 in 9th)


P5 Grid:

5: 5-6 (A), - (B), 1-9 (C)
6: 2-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
9: 4-11-12 (A), 7-9-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x1x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (C-A-A-A-A): 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4-6 in 5th)


P4 Grid:

6: 2-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4 (A), - (B), 1-2-8 (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
9: 4-7-11-12 (A), 9-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x4x6 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x1x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (A-C-A-A): 3x3x2x3 = 54 x .50 = $27 (1-2-8 in 7th)


Good luck!
Steve