9/23: Parx (PA Derby Day); Churchill (Downs After Dark)

[Kasept]

PARX ~ PA DERBY/COTILLION DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


10th: Dirt Mile, 3+, 1m (Philly Big 5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Dr B 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Dr Ardito 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Gunite 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Nimitz Class 9-2 WON ($15.00)


11th: Gallant Bob (G3), 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Gordian Knot 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Nautical Star 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Ryvit 5-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Damon's Mound 4-1 WON ($5.60)


12th: Cotillion (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Occult 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Defining Purpose 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Pretty Mischievous 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Ceiling Crusher 5-1 WON ($8.60)


13th: Pennsylvania Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #10 Il Miracolo 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Saudi Crown 7-2 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Magic Tap 5-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Daydreaming Boy 12-1 8th


14th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f

Best Value: #10 Glory Dia 8-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Wicked Sight 5-1 12th
Exotics Use: #6 Practicality 15-1 11th
Super Add: #7 Our Uptown Girl 8-1 7th


Philly Big 5 Grid (15% takeout, single ticket, 70 daily/30 carry wager):

10: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 5-10 (A), - (B), 4-9 (C)
12: 5 (A), 7 (B), 2-3 (C)
13: 3-4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 9-10 (A), 6-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-C-A-A-A): 3x2x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4-9 in 11th)
Backup (A-A-C-A-A): 3x2x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (2-3 in 12th)


P4 Grid:

11: 5-10 (A), 4-9 (B), - (C)
12: 5-7 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
13: 3-4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 9-10 (A), 6-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (A-C-A-A): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (2-3 in 12th)



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Cellist 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Vintage Print 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 War Campaign 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Street Ready 4-1 6th


7th: Bourbon Trail, 3yo, 9.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Big Data 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Slip Mahoney 5-2 WON ($6.76)
Exotics Use: #3 Denington 7-2 4th
Super Add: #4 Shirl's Bee 15-1 6th


8th: Harrods Cereek, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Everso Mischievous 2-1 WON ($4.38)
Next Best: #3 Loyal Company 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Bourbon Bash 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Mount Up 7-2 6th


9th: Seneca O/N, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 She's Lookin Lucky 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Taxed 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Poblano 3-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Xigera 9-2 WON ($7.80)


P4 Grid:

6: 4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-7 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
8: 3-6 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


10th: Dogwood (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Yesternight 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Metaphysical 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Twice as Sweet 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Norah G 12-1 6th


11th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Bru Na Boinne 6-1 WON ($5.42)
Next Best: #2 Call Again 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Amber Cascade 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Forever After All 4-1 6th


P5 Grid:

7: 2-7 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
8: 6 (A), 3 (B), 1-5 (C)
9: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-C-A-A-A): 2x2x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36


P4 Grid:

8: 6 (A), 3 (B), 1-5 (C)
9: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-4 (A), 7-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 1x3x3x2 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (C-A-A-A): 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve