2/24: Oaklawn Park (Rebel Day; X-C P5)

[Kasept]

OAKLAWN PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, DD)

Best Value: #5 Seize the Grey 9-2 WON ($13.60)
Next Best: #4 Imperial Gun 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Blown Cover 2-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Maximus Magic 15-1 2nd


2nd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Feels like a firster (2 from Asmussen, one each from Morse, Swearengen & Diodoro) will supersede the ones that have been nibbling at graduation (DiVito, Sharp, Robertson, Lukas). But which? Morse runs a snappy debut outfit and Mo El Grande (5-1) has license to be ready today. May get lost on the board too..

Best Value: #6 Mo El Grande 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Sir Otto 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Run Jalen Run 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Excitable Boy 12-1 WON ($18.20)


3rd: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Motown Dynamic the filly to beat, but Maker offers Havaha (Hansen), half to Serengheti Empress (Alternation). Mike Lauer has seasonal debut of Pewter's Promise, a home bred full sister to his excellent multiple Indy stake winning Mowins. Mohaymen offspring are slow developers and she could boost the exotics getting 7# from the field with bug boy Bealmear..

Most Likely: #3 Motown Dynamic 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Havaha 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Cruise Missle 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Pewter's Promise 20-1 6th


4th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Very tricky read. No shortage of pace..

Best Value: #4 Efficiency 12-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Favorite Outlaw 9-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Unraptured 7-2 12th
Super Add: #2 Gunflash 4-1 11th


5th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Interesting group that appears to be lacking speed. No short of pedigree on display including Parcells' first time 3yo half to Faiza (Her Best Friend), Danza/Majestic Harbor half Tap the Champagne (Tapit), Laoban half Happy Talk (Arrogate), Salutos Amigos half Off the Lam (Curlin) and Take Charge Brandi daughter Who's Ticket (Quality Road)..

Best Value: #3 Tap the Champagne 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Enigmatic 9-5 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Pepper's Girlfriend 8-1 10th
Super Add: #1 Her Best Friend 15-1 8th


6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Polterer 10-1 WON ($22.20)
Next Best: #8 Sun Thunder 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Pledgeofallegiance 12-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Infiltrator 20-1 7th


7th: AR-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Cox firster by Good Magic for Staton Flurry is plenty likely, but note that Jonesborohurricane's SCR'D half sister She's Storming (Hightail) was a debut winner for this team at 47-1 in 2022..

Most Likely: #10 Snow Flurry 2-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Haulin Ice 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #13 Aurora Gee 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Presleys Turn 15-1 11th


P4 Grid:

4: 4-11 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
5: 3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 6-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-10 (A), 13 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's:2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


8th: Carousel, F&M-4+, 6f (X-C P4/Leg A, P5, All STK P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Zeitlos 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #9 I'm the Boss of Me 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Mucho Macho Girl 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Let's Be Clear 8-1 6th


Cross Country P5 Grid:

OP 8: 8 (A), 9 (B), 7 (C)
AQ 8: 2-3-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
OP 9: 2-4-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
OP 10: 1-12 (A), 8-11 (B), - (C)
OP 11: 7 (A), - (B), 11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x4x1 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 1x4x4x2x1 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (CAAAA): 1x4x4x2x1 = 32 x .50 = $16 (7 in OP 8)
Backup (AAAAC): 1x4x4x2x1 = 32 x .50 = $16 (11 in OP 11)


AQUEDUCT 8th: NY-Haynesfield, 4+, 1m (X-C P4/Leg B, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Dr Ardito 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Whittington Park 8-1 WON ($27.20)
Next Best: #7 Maker's Candy 8-5 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Overstep 10-1 4th


9th: Honeybee (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (X-C P4/Leg C, Late P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Neom Beach 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Band of Gold 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 West Omaha 7-5 3rd
Super Add: #8 Tapit Janallie 10-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

5: 3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 6-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-10 (A), - (B), 13 (C)
8: 8 (A), 7-9 (B), - (C)
9: 2-4-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x1x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 2x3x1x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12 (13 in 7th)


P4 Grid:

6: 6-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-10 (A), - (B), 13 (C)
8: 7-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-4-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x2x3x4 = 72 x 50 = $36
Backup (ACAA): 3x1x3x4 = 36 x .50 = $18 (13 in 7th)


10th: Razorback (G3), 4+, 8.5f (X-C P4/Leg D, P3, DD)

Note that Von Hemel will SCR Ain't Life Grand, opting for a return in Sunday's ALW feature..

Best Value: #12 Escapologist 20-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Magic Tap 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Notary 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 U. S. Army 15-1 8th


11th: Rebel (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (X-C P4/Leg E, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Timberlake 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #11 Just Steel 7-2 7th
Best Value: #3 Common Defense 30-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Northern Flame 5-1 3rd


All Stakes P4 Grid:

8: 7-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-4-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 8-12 (A), 7-11 (B), - (C)
11: 7 (A), 11 (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x4x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAC): 3x4x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3 in 11th)


12th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f

Most Likely: #7 Crushed It 1-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Give Me a Reason 3-1 WON ($8.80)
Best Value: #12 Gotta Have Dreams 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Sicilian Defense 10-1 12th


P5 Grid:

8: 7-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-4-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 8-12 (A), 7-11 (B), - (C)
11: 7 (A), - (B), 11 (C)
12: 2-7 (A), 12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x1x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x4x2x1x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AAACA): 3x4x2x1x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

9: 2-4-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 8-12 (A), 7-11 (B), - (C)
11: 7 (A), 11 (B), 3 (C)
12: 2-7 (A), 12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x2x1x2 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backup (AACA): 4x2x1x2 = 16 x .50 = $8 (3 in 11th)


Good luck!
Steve