9/21: Parx ~ PA Derby/Cotillion Day

[Kasept]

PARX ~ PENNSYLVANIA DERBY/COTILLION DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: Plum Pretty-PA, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Morning Matcha 2-5 4th
Best Value: #1 Pachelbel 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Confirmed Star 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Foxy Junior 7-2 WON ($15.80)


7th: OC/N$Y, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Tricky read here with most logical players part of what looks like a hot pace..

Most Likely: #6 Woohoo Jackie Blue 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Bella Queen Gate SCR
Next Best: #11 Striker Has Dial 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Brzina 7-2 WON ($12.00)


8th: Greenwood Cup (G3), 3+, 12f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Next 1-9 WON ($2.10)
Best Value: #5 Treble Clef 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Truculent 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Magic Michael 9-2 2nd


9th: Parx Dirt Mile, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Injunction 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Adero 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Coastal Mission 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #6 Concealed Carry 12-1 6th


P4 Grid:

6: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-5-6-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x6x1x3 = $18 x 2 = $36 ($9 for each .50)


10th: Turf Monster (G3), 3+, 5f-OFF (Mandatory Pay Philly Big 5, P3, DD)

Best Value:
Next Best: #4 Jean Valjean 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Talented Man 2nd
Super Add: #2 Traders Luck Gate SCR


11th: Gallant Bob (G3), 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

No bona fide stars as of yet, but an interesting set of soph dashers that look to have long term upside in the sprint division..

Best Value: #7 One Sharp Cookie 6-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Bentornato 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Sunny Breeze 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Buccherino 4-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

8: 9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2/SCR-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-3-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x3x3x4 = $36 ($18 for .50)


PRX 12th: Cotillion (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Have maintained all week that Mystic Lake can catch Thorpedo Anna flatfooted here under Smith on the stretch out..

Best Value: #8 Mystic Lake 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Thorpedo Anna 4-5 WON ($2.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Sidamara 6-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Tarifa 5-1 3rd


PRX 13th: Pennsylvania Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

This is a curiosity and I won't profess to know what kind of outcome we're going to have. There should be a very sharp pace with Seize the Grey & Dragoon Guard vying for the lead, Unmatched Wisdom in close attendance and a host of pressers in proximity. Timeout (10-1) is the right price key being well within range of the favorites, possessing tactical speed and appearing poised for a forward move..

Best Value: #4 TIMEOUT 10-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Unmatched Wisdom 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Protective 8-1 10th
Super Add: #1 Doc Sullivan 12-1 6th


14th: Parx Sprint, 4+, 6.5f

Best Value: #3 Twisted Ride 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Super Chow 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Ninetypercentmaddie 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Veeson 8-1 3rd


'Must Pay' Philly Big 5 Grid:

10: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-7 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
12: 6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 4-5-8 (A), - (B), 1-2-7-11 (C)
14: 3 (A), 6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 3x2x2x4x1 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-2-7-11 in 13th)


P4 Grid:

11: 1-7 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
12: 6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 1-4-5-8-11 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
14: 3-6 (A), - (B), 5-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x7x2 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A's: 2x2x5x2 = 40 x .50 = $20
Backup (AAACA): 2x2x5x2 = 40 x .50 = $20 (5-10 in 14th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve