10/9: Keeneland ($266k Early P5 C/O)

[Kasept]

KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

$266k Early P5 C/O starts here..

Tricky start to challenging sequence..

Best Value: #1 Never Sway 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Forever Home 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Ella Frances 10-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Simple Souvenir 12-1 3rd


2nd: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Messy maiden claiming affair..

Most Likely: #7 River Ridge 9-2 WON ($6.30)
Best Value: #10 Grand Illusion 15-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Masked Man 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Maliblue 8-1 2nd


3rd: CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Other than 15-1 Chryso Alogo, field is separated by a length on best. 6-5 Invulnerable goes turf to dirt while dropping first time for a tag..

Most Likely: #1 Invulnerable 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Dutch Mills 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Normandy Hero 9-2 WON ($6.46)
Exotics Use: #6 Crew Dragon 8-1 3rd


4th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Off the 'lost rider' line last time, Stage Left's dive to $16k feels like a classic Jacobson dare to claim..

Most Likely: #1 Stage Left 2-1 WON ($4.10)
Next Best: #2 Tallahatchiebridge 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Appeal Denied 6-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Santa Cruiser 12-1 3rd


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Long on the grass and it's several that have had their chances versus a few whose early tries can be forgiven..

Most Likely: #3 Adrasteia 9-2 WON ($7.14)
Best Value: #8 I Am the Sauce 20-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Fifth of May 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Estuary 8-1 11th


P5 Grid:

1: 1-3 (A), 2-8 (B), 4-7 (C)
2: 7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 3-6-8 (A), 10-14 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x1x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAAA): 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4-7 in 1st)

$0.50 PICK FIVE (4/1,4,6,7/5/1,9,11,12/1,3,4,15,16) PAID $224.95 (C-A-A-A-A)
$0.50 PICK FIVE CONSO (4/1,4,6,7/5/1,9,11,12/1,3,4,15,16) PAID $4.92


P4 Grid:

2: 7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 3-6-8 (A), 10-14 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x5 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 PICK FOUR (1,4,6,7/5/1,9,11,12/1,3,4,15,16) PAID $49.53 (A-A-A-A)


6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Cooper 4-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Kinetic Control 8-5 6th
Best Value: #5 Fever Night 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Freaky 8-1 10th


7th: OC/N2X, 3yo-F, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Miss Enchanted 8-5 4th
Next Best: #1 Silver Rose 2-1 WON ($4.54)
Exotics Use: #5 Bedazzle 'Em 4-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Sing a Little Song 6-1 2nd


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Green Light 5-2 WON ($3.42)
Best Value: #13 Roundtop 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Katheeb 5-1 -
Exotics Use: #6 Clever Mischief 7-2 2nd


P5 Grid:

4: 1-2 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
5: 3-6-8 (A), 10-14 (B), - (C)
6: 5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-13 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x3x1x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAAA): 2x3x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (5-6 in 4th)


P4 Grid:

5: 3-6-8 (A), 10-14 (B), - (C)
6: 5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 6 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
8: 1-13 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x3x1x4 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A's: 3x3x1x2 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (AACA): 3x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1 in 7th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve