2/8: Tampa (6th-12th; Cross Country P5)

[Kasept]

TAMPA BAY ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: Minaret, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Nic's Style 7/5
Best Value: #1 Opus Forty Two 12-1
Next Best: #5 Ruthless Rua 6-1
Exotics Use: #6 Dazzling Blue 3-1


7th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-40y (Ultimate 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

$1MM Songbird colt by Curlin debuts here for Mott (McCorvey), but Pletcher counters with $850k Justify Weekendsandwhiskey SCR'D and Cox returns $875k Authentic Wild Conqueror SCR'D. And Chad unveils Jeff Drown's Good Magic Van Ginkel as well. But 'don't sleep on' Van Winkle 2nd timer Mad House (8-1) who chased Davis entrant John Hancock in debut..

Best Value: #4 Mad House 8-1
Next Best: #1 Candytown 6-1
Exotics Use: #6 Van Ginkel 2-1
Super Add: #8 McGorvey 3-1


8th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Lucky Combination 8/5
Next Best: #10 Siempre Elegante 7-2
Best Value: #7 Victoria's Dancer 12-1
Exotics Use: #2 Seat at the Table 6-1


9th: Suncoast, 3yo-F, 1m-40y (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Her Laugh 5-2
Best Value: #8 Cloe 8-1
Next Best: #6 La Cara 2-1
Exotics Use: #2 Dancing Magic 8-1


P4 Grid:

6: 1-4 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
7: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 6 (A), - (B), 10 (C)
9: 2-4-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x4 = $48
All A's: 2x3x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AACA): 2x3x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12 (10 in 8th)


10th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Portfolio Duration 9/5
Next Best: #7 Lying by Omission 2-1
Exotics Use: #11 Majestic Drive 6-1
Super Add: #4 Mona L 8-1


AQUEDUCT 8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 7f (DD)

Best non stake of the day..

Most Likely: #5 Cascais 3-1
Best Value: #1 Expected Value 12-1
Next Best: #3 Skylander 5-1
Exotics Use: #11 Treaty Obligation 9-2


CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

A: 1-3-5 (A), - (B), 4-7-11 (C)
B: 5-11 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
C: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
D: 1-2-8 (A), 3-4-9 (B), - (C)
E: 3-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x1x3x2 =36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAAA): 3x2x1x3x2 =36 x .50 = $18 (4-7-11 in Leg A-AQU 8)


OAKLAWN 7th: OC/S-ALW, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Lightening Struck 6-1
Next Best: #11 Top Gun Tommy 2-1
Best Value: #2 Wind of Change 15-1
Exotics Use: #8 I'm No Joke 5-1


OAKLAWN 8th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Bon Temps 15-1
Next Best: #11 Gun Runner Charlie 8-1
Exotics Use: #2 Secret Legend 6-1
Super Add: #5 Velociraptor 3-1


TAMPA 11th: Sam F. Davis, 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

This is a fabulous race which pits a handful of clear contenders with a Puerto Rican mystery horse (Smoken Boy) and a splashy first-out Cox winner (John Hancock). Go ahead and spin the wheel with price ideas because there's no combination that would shock..

Best Value: #1 Camp Hale 20-1
Next Best: #2 Treaty of Rome 6-1
Exotics Use: #8 Naughty Rascal 6-1
Super Add: #9 Smoken Boy 20-1


TAMPA 12th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 9f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Factor Analysis 8/5
Best Value: #3 Noble Factor 10-1
Next Best: #7 Why Not Me 8-1
Exotics Use: #12 Ehsaan 3-1
Super/Hi-5: #4 Heathguard 10-1


P5 Grid:

8: 6 (A), 10 (B), - (C)
9: 4-8 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
10: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-2-8-9 (A), - (B), 3-4-5-6-7-10 (C)
12: 3-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 1x2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (AAACA): 1x2x2x6x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-4-5-6-7-10 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

9: 4-8 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
10: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-2-8-9 (A), 3-4 (B), 5-6-7-10 (C)
12: 3-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (AACA): 2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (5-6-7-10 in 11th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve