When weight is important!

With March looming large handicappers can use weight more now than any other time of year, as an integral part of their handicapping. This is especially so with allowance and stake caliber 3yo's.

As a bit of background, British sportsman Admiral John Rous created what is now the Jockey Club scale of weights. The purpose was to level the playing field because it was then common to run fillies against colts and horses of all ages, against one another. These weights featured a big spread early in the year, then narrowed as the year progressed taking normal thoroughbred maturation into account, as well as race distance.

For our purposes we concentrate on sophomores and use the tenet that 3yo's have trouble giving weight to other 3yo's, especially as distances increase. Many of these are not yet three by the calendar as most foals are born from Mid-February thru Mid- May. Several events vital to the tenet include the remarkable growth spurts 3yo's go thru, they are asked to run longer distances, and the most accomplished are given extra weight to carry.

As an example of extra weight carried, Gulfstream will run a couple of stakes Saturday; the Fountain Of Youth and Hutcheson. Both are for 3yo's, run at "lengthened" distances, and both assign weight on accomplishment. The former is being contested at nine furlongs (it was run at 8 and a half for over sixty years) and the weight is 122 pounds. However non-winners of 75K twice at a mile or over are allowed two pounds, 75K once at any distance 4lbs, and non winners of 40K at any distance or 24K twice, allowed six pounds. The Hutcheson weights are very similar but do not include any distance penalties. Over the last decade, the FOY has seen; Built For Pleasure beat Unbridled Song, Pulpit took the measure of Captain Bodgit, Lil's Lad dusted Coronado's Quest, Vicar smoked Cat Thief and ALL these winners got big weight concessions!

The tenet does not replace generally accorded handicapping principles such as, form, class, breeding, pace etc. but weight does take on added significance for three year olds, for the next sixty days or so. Conversely, most handicapping authors eschew weight in their books, and several handicapping icons reject the tenet entirely. Davidowitz offers that "weight is the most overrated factor in handicapping" and Beyer echoes that statement although conceding "old time horseplayers and trainers of every era swear by its importance". Over the course of the year both 'cappers are correct, but if there is an edge to be gained, it is with sophomores in the spring.

Using the 2006 Derby preps as a measuring stick does little to contradict the tenet, although last year their were three serious win machines. Brother Derek won four consecutive derby preps, Lawyer Ron toasted rivals in six consecutive races and the exceptional, yet ill-fated Barbaro won all six of his starts. Nevertheless there was money to be made as there always is with 3yo's in the spring. In the Gotham, LIKE NOW carrying 117 outgamed 17-10 favorite Keyed Entry (120) and returned $75. In the Tampa Bay Derby Deputy Glitters (116) beat forty cents on the dollar Bluegrass Cat (122) paying $19. In the Fountain of Youth Corinthian off at eight to one and getting four pounds from 7-10 favorite First Samurai beat him though was ultimately DQ'ed. The San Felipe (now the Bob Lewis) saw A. P. Warrior turn back even money Bob and John while getting three pounds and paying $17.

At first glance one could ask; "How can a thoroughbred weighing a half a ton be impacted by a few pounds or so? Following the Derby preps, and allowance races at seven furlongs or more restricted to 3yo's, over the spring, in any given year, will answer that question!

Perhaps the best quote on weight comes from top shelf DRF 'capper Dave "Lunchpail" Litfin who summed it up as follows; "The significance of weight is one of the most perplexing and controversial subjects in handicapping". A friend recalls his favorite comment, also from the DRF, regarding the 1967 Brooklyn Handicap where Handsome Boy smoked the talented Buckpasser. The latter toted 136 pounds giving Handsome Boy twenty pounds! The past performance comment "no excuse". BBB