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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
The truth of this contest is that an aberational result which caused place bets to appear the better bet would have sent a TERRIBLE message to people. This idea that place betting is a sound strategy is flat out wrong and yet another reason people have trouble making money betting horses. The idea is to find ways to maximize one's profits or returns. Place and show betting, simply put, minimizes returns. Place and show bettors are suckers and losers at the windows.
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You are of course evaluating this on the basis of someone looking to make money through wagering as opposed to people wagering as a hobby. For people wagering as a hobby I don't think they are going to be happy to know that statistically they made the right play when they bet an 80-1 shot under the favorite in the exacta and it winds up second behind another horse and they get nothing. It is actually more Game Theory than anything. Some people are risk seekers and want the best longterm payout and are willing to come up with nothing on several occassions when they are right on a long shot. Others are risk averse and want the utility (or happiness) of getting a payoff every time. That happiness of winning every time you are right is worth more to them than the difference in both methods for the longterm.
This is why it drove me nuts majoring in statistics and economics. They contradicted each other in so many ways. I could give a 100% statistically correct answer to a question on an economics exam and get zero points for it.
04-18-2007, 03:49 PM
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