Va Derby

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First, on not running on the dirt again, that is hardly surprising as I would guess Tagg is one of those trainers that doesn't like to do a lot of surface switching. He certainly knows a lot better than I.

Now, as far as the comment that Showing Up " will " win millions in his career...well that may be jumping the gun. First of all, there isn't THAT much money in turf racing and to win " millions " ( yes I know he has already won around $800K ) he would have to win a few big races. But also, I'm not exactly sure how his win a couple weeks ago stamped him as a superstar. Don't get me wrong, he ran well, better than I thought he would, but he did get a perfect trip behind a blistering pace where he saved all the ground. It also was hardly a spectacular field. He has a lot of improving do, which he certainly can do considering his young age and inexperience, to catch up to even the decent American older horses out there. But, what happens if a few decent Euros show up for next month's Secretariat? My guess is they would offer a very reasonable challenge to Showing Up. What happens if a big field assembles and he doesn't draw an inside post? One thing he does have going for him is tactical speed, along with obvious talent, so he will at least be in a position to make his own trips.

I have to say, I wouldn't be so presumptuous as to argue with decisions from a guy as good as Barcley Tagg, but I can't say this seems like the best time to be conservative. There is the potential for a major payday and as was said earlier....he ran back in the Derby on TWO weeks rest.

I agree that with $600,000 available against a suspect field he needs to take a shot. It is graded too, although my friend said the grade 1 in Arlington would do more for his stud career than the VA Derby. He should win millions though simply because he is going to run at age 4 and after 5 starts he is basically half way there. The horse might not do it with grade 1 wins but there is plenty of money on the turf for him to pick up another 1M over you figure 10 more career starts. The crazy thing is that if he won next weekend he would already have $1.5M. I just don't see why he doesn't skip the Secretariat and take the easier money here. It is pretty obvious to me he liked the turf at Colonial. I still say he winds up going to the race next week.