Lone Star Thursday

[philcski]

Good/Off the Turf.
R2:
1 slow works, tr bad w firsters, unlikely
2 broke poorly debut, 1 2f work since, bet in debut, backup only
3 no pedigree, no works over 3f, no thanks
4 nice pedigree for going long but seems an underlay at 5f at 2/1, why 25k?
5 useful debut, see 2nd career performance by trainer, win early sire, open to statebred
6 exits same race as 5, arguably better race but clean break, using
7 highest fig in debut, but beaten 5L in debut, start trouble significant?
R3:
1 reasonable posn for 1st try vs winners, but 1/14 not appealing, 5/1 fair value
2 drops a level, good move for this trainer, too slow?
3 the obv selection, but 1/14 not great with 2nditis, drifted out last a ??
4 pretty hopeless even against these
5 pace factor unlikely to be around a long time
6 long layoff but a nice work 11 days ago, drops, lightly raced, not the craziest stab
7 drops from an ok allowance effort, no works since 4/24? Big chance
R4:
1 nice back to back works, draws the rail, good pickup for only $2k if she's anything
2 debut nothing, took no money for normally hot trainer, pass
3 works just ok, but asmussen always tough with 2yos, backup ticket only
4 blocked midstretch but didn't have much, drop may help but nothing more than underneath
5 impossible post, productive race, nice work since, should make a big impact here @ a square price
6 only 3 works, none of which are good, trainer not good with firsters, unlikely
7 nice pedigree but sold for nothing, trainer poor with firsters, work 4/24 ok but 5/5 terrible, nothing since, pass
8 starting at manor not a great sign but did come out of decent race, drop will help, adds blinks, playable
R5:
1 awesome turf pedigree, works ok, trainer 1ster on grass record good, dam was stakes winner, top choice
2 another useable type with decent grass pedigree, good works, tr 1ster record solid, big chance
3 hopeless at mcl sprints, no chance
4 sprint pedigree, nice return off the layoff, can't see her loving turf but trainer is money overall
5 don't buy the 8/5, very contentious field, using in p4 but prefer others at the price, had every right last 2
6 pretty mediocre efforts so far, shepherd hops off, not much to recommend
7 0-17 and just can't seem to get over the hump, run 5/13/06 solid but not good enough in this field
8 showed little in debut, would be a real put over
9 not much to recommend
10 off forever, would be a real shocker
11 much improved effort on turf as expected, but gets the dreaded outside post at 7.5F, would need to be much the best, backup ticket only

Early pick 4:
2,4,5,6,7/3,7/1,3,5,8/4,5 $80
5,6/1,6/1,3,5,8/4,5 $32
5,6/3,7/1,3,5,8/1,2 $32

Total investment: $144