Pletcher to have no horses in the Travers

[ELA]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Actually, you don't feel the 2 for 41 (5%) in BC races is any sort of indicator of his abilities? I think we are in agreement that you'd be hard pressed to find someone on the earth with better stock for American racing, correct?

Here are a list of names of those with more BC wins to their credit, with number of starters in parentheses, and winning percentage.

Lukas 18 (146) 12%
McGaughey 9 (49) 18%
Mandella 6 (28) 21%
Drysdale 6 (33) 18%
Mott 5 (48) 10%
McAnally 4 (27) 15%
Frankel 4 (68) 6%
Byrne 3 (8) 38%
Bary 3 (8) 38%
Canani 3 (12) 25%
Boutin 3 (19) 16%
Stoute 3 (26) 12%
A O'Brien 3 (39) 8%
Baffert 3 (44) 7%

There are also 13 trainers that have won as many BC races as Todd (2), with none of them having started more than 26 horses. The list includes training icons like Janine Sahadi and Joe Orseno. Todd's 2 wins were with Ashado in 2004, who was favored, and Speightstown, who was 2nd choice by a dime to Midas Eyes. How many of his 39 other starters do you think were either 1st or 2nd choice? I'm guessing (because I'm not counting) quite a few.

Anyhow, IMO you can see how someone can state that maybe Todd is not a VERY good trainer, which may just be his way of saying the guy is VERY overrated, which is a statement I would agree with.

I know there are those that disagree and are awestruck by his overall numbers, but he's got a lot of the richest, active owners, who supply him with the best possible stock (and a lot of it) and has one of the top jocks riding for him almost all of the time, shouldn't he be that good numbers wise by default?

Actually, no, a one dimensional view of "data" -- your data in this case -- which is a very myopic view -- is not an indicator of his abilities . . . and you know that . . . oh no you don't . . . look at your handle, LOL.

Was BC day results an indicator of Bobby Frankel's training abilities, when he was 0 for 30 plus? It didn't keep him out of the Hall of Fame. Sure, there were his critics and their opinion counted for crap then, just like it does now. People who are in this business, who have been in this game a long time, who have paid their dues -- some of them know who good trainers are. Not someone who picks one stat and says "Hey, look what I found, and now my opinion counts".

We all know what they say -- Statistics don't lie, only statisticians do.

Listen, I am not a fan of Todd Pletcher. I have often said that in his position, and in his situation, going 0 for whatever in TC races can be an issue, especially for the critics. However, his owners don't seem to mind. That's neither here nor there. It's their issues -- not mine. I've often said -- do those owners spend that kind of money to win training titles, maiden specials, and "A other thans" or do they spend that kind of money to win the big dance? It's easy to be a critic, but that doesn't make Todd Pletcher "not a very good trainer" so to speak. Regardless, that one piece of data, is not an indication of his abilities.

Anyway, that is just one of the reasons he wouldn't be my choice to train a top 2yo or 3yo. I've never been a fan of corporate training per se. Although I have a trainer who has 200 or so horses, however, I view it as a different operation, set-up, different mindset, requirements, etc. I've spoke with several trainers, well respected horsemen, who question his operation, methodolgies, ability to manage an operation with that size and scope, and so on. Some think he does an excellent job, others think he's more of a CEO than a trainer. Still, others think he is not a good horseman and things must slip through the cracks. And still others think that the assembly line is not a way to train horses, and so on and so on. One of these opinions comes from a Hall of Fame trainer, one who I respect. When those opinions start being thrown around here, I'll listen to them -- not to one piece of myopic and one dimensional information.

In addition, I have also said, that aside from shooting incredible #'s, which has it's substance and it's distortions, and winning record #'s of Grade 1's -- if you look at the truly prestigeous big dance races, the most prestigeous G'1s, it was not often that Pletcher truly came over with "the horse to beat" so to speak. Ashado was of course, and there might have been another instance or two. However, it's not like he strolled into every prestigeous G1 -- the ones that count on a stallion's or mare's resume -- and was even money or 3-5. I get all that and have said that often. That might of changed the past year or so, but prior, even Pletcher said in an interview, this was the case.

However, to say that "Pletcher is not a very good trainer" or to look at one piece of data and make that statement -- well, I guess there is not only plenty of horse manure at the track, but here as well, LOL.

I'll leave the rest to the critics and the training icons.

Eric