SA C/O Contest: Cassie, AJ go 5/6!

[Kasept]

Wednesday's carry at Santa Anita looks murderous, but I'm sure the intrepid are ready to take a shot... Pool sure to reach $2.5MM...

Urge those entering to try Crist-style multiple ticket approach to capitalize on the objective of these exersizes: improving our approach to the big P6 pots...

Sunday's Belmont carry was an example of how the A-B-C-X ranking and construction can work. Genuine Devotion (5-2), Melissa Jo (3-1) and Pick Six (6-1) were all horses that in my view were "A's", and the three were "Most Likely" (Melissa & Six) or "Best Value" in the case of Devotion in the Selections.. I didn't care for Sew Slippery (4-1) and Acclimate (3-1), but they obviously could have been an "A" or "B" or many people's plays.

That leaves Shapira (8.50-1) as the lone price in the sequence. Those utilizing a multiple ticket approach might have had the 5 winners as "A" plays on the backup tick, and in all liklihood have included the Mott-Castro runner (Shapira) on that 9th race that featured your "C's".

For those that aren't familiar:


1.) Rank horses in each race:

A=Must use
B=Serious consider
C=Outsider with chance
X=Tossouts


2.) Structure main ticket featuring your A & B horses (Example):

Leg A: AAB
Leg B: AB
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: AB
Leg F: AABB

3x2x1x2x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192


3.) Structure 6 backups featuring your A's, dropping B's, adding C's:


Backup 1 with Leg A "C's"

Leg A: CC
Leg B: A
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: A
Leg F: AA

2x1x1x2x1x2 = 8 x $2 = $16


Backup 2 with Leg B "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: CCC
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: A
Leg F: AA

2x3x1x2x1x2 = 24 x $2 = $48


Backup 3 with Leg C "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: A
Leg C: CC
Leg D: AA
Leg E: A
Leg F: AA

2x1x2x2x1x2 = 16 x $2 = $32


Backup 4 with Leg D "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: A
Leg C: A
Leg D: CCCC
Leg E: A
Leg F: AA

2x1x1x4x1x2 = 16 x $2 = $32


Backup 5 with Leg E "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: A
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: CC
Leg F: AA

2x1x1x2x2x2 = 16 x $2 = $32


Backup 6 with Leg F "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: A
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: A
Leg F: CCC

2x1x1x2x1x3 = 12 x $2 = $24


Total play:

Main: $192
Back1: $16
Back2: $48
Back3: $32
Back4: $32
Back5: $32
Back6: $24

Total: $376

What you're doing is trying to limit your wasteful combinations. (Wasteful in that every horse you use in a "main" ticket.. that you're putting in that has less than a reasonable win chance.. is driving the cost of the ticket up by the multiples involved.) By placing thos horses in isolated backup tickets, you're maximizing your investment by focusing the "main" ticket on the ones with the best opportunity to win in your opinion. The backups are there to cover you in the isolated case where your opinion is correct in all but one of the races.. as might have been the case Sunday with Shapira had those other five winners been on your "main" play...

(If you have questions, feel free to ask in the Contest thread. I'll try to answer as best I can, and perhaps BTW can jump in as well. Visit the original P6 Symposium Threads in the Hatton Reading Room for expanded discusion of the concept and commentary from Andy..
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9062)