5/17: Hi Ho.. Pimlico! (Preakness Day)

[Kasept]

A glorious day appears on tap for Old Hilltop Saturday after rain disrupted the Pimlico Special/Black-Eyed Susan Day card with off-the-turf and a sloppy main track. While the heavily-scratched erstwhile grass events cancelled my P4 try, the late portion of the card became a success with a $257 tri in the Susie keyed by 7-1 Sweet Vendetta who also boosted the $354 Late P3.

I suggested being tactical Friday and prepared to 'adjust accordingly'. If you were listening to 'ATR' Friday, when confronted with the 7-1 on Contessa's NY bred and a plummeting 3-1 on Seattle Smooth, Sweet Vendetta became the focus of my own tickets. 'Best Value' top tab Seattle Smooth was the 'right' horse at anything near her 10-1 ML price, but wasn't as lovable at 3-1. She moved below 'Next Best' 3rd choice Vendetta who was hovering near her original 8-1, and the shift in opportunity enabled a different wager than originally intended and the very positive outcome. When #6 Joyous Jester upset heavily-bet Giant Move in the nightcap, a $350+ P3 was an unexpected bonus. I hope some were able to take advantage of the PIM Special/Preakness Double, as the Student Council victory turns likely feature winner Big Brown into an 8-1 ($20.20) horse from the $2.30 he'd pay if things go right. Hope you did well Friday...

Saturday's card didn't excite me initially to the extent Friday's did, but yesterday's results, knowing it's going to be a nice afternoon, and the midday try by Dee Tee Stables' Kickin N Screamin in Arlington's 4th, are enough to get the juices flowing!


PIMLICO RACE COURSE


3rd: 22nd MD Sprint H. (Gr. III), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Suave Jazz 9-5: A. Dutrow 5yo always runs his race.. 2nd
Best Value: #1 Celtic Innis 10-1: Old favorite 2nd off long break; good @ PIM 4th
Next Best: #7 Cognac Kisses 5-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #4 Starforaday 4-1 WON


4th: The Deputed Testimony, MD-bred/3+, 8.5f (P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Let Me Be Frank 5-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Wooded 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Off the Glass 3-1 6th
Exotics Add: #8 Red Gulch 9-2 10th


5th: The Skipat, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Note that #1 (POE) Tight Storm is to be scratched after banging her head badly exiting van from NY..

Most Likely: #6 Akronism 8-5: Ritchey 4yo circling back to best.. WON
Best Value: #3 My Sister Sue 6-1: Stiles broke ice Friday; Value and threat.. 2nd
Next Best: #7 Drama Lady 3-1 4th
Exotics Add: #4 Acinonyx 8-1 3rd

$2 Exacta (6-3) Paid $40.00
$1 Trifecta Paid $79.80
$1 Superfecta Paid $193.70


6th: 57th Gallorette (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Anyone notice that Matz is 0-for-17 with horses first time under his care? (#1 Valbenny 3-2); If he breaks that streak, he'll do it without my money, thanks..

Most Likely: #3 ROSHANI 2-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Stormy West 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 SCR
Exotics Add: #7 SCR


7th: 16th Barbaro, 3yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Spurrier 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Da' Tara 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Roman Emperor 8-5 WON
Exotics Add: #7 Wesley 5-1 5th

$2 Exacta (1-5) Paid $12.00
$1 Trifecta Box Paid $12.60


<$50 P4 Play:

4: 2-6-7
5: 2-3-4-6-7
6: 3
7: 1-3-5

3x5x1x3 = $45 $1 Pick 4 $159.10


8th: Old Mutual Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

As discussed Friday on ATR, hard to embrace 8-5 favorite from the #12 (Heros Reward) in a 14 horse grass dash..

Most Likely: #6 Hesa Big Star 7-2 5th
Best Value: #4 S K R's Spartan 20-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Heros Reward 8-5 WON
Exotics Add: #8 True to Tradition 6-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (12-8) Paid $16.70


9th: 33rd Hirsch Jacobs (Gr. III), 3yo, 6f (P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Force Freeze 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Commandeered 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Lantana Mob 8-5 WON
Exotics Add: #2 Sheeler 10-1 6th


10th: 107th Dixie (Gr. II), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Shakis 3-2: Mile just not his bag; Expect return to best.. 5th
Best Value: #1 Headsandtales 20-1: Using local prominantly; Remember 'Mr. O'Brien'? 7th
Next Best: #6 Stay Close 6-1: Expect solid 6yo better in this now than '07.. 2nd
Exotics Add: #8 Salinja 6-1: May get a 'cut in ground' course he likes.. 9th


11th: 17th Allaire DuPont Distaff (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Outrageously well-matched group of fillies and mares in what may be the day's best race.. Opinion of the Next Move and Sweetzie at AQU instrumental here with Altesse, Runway Rosie and Wow Me Free having mixed it up in those.. Leaning towards mixed set of other faces and stalker types..

Most Likely: #4 Bear Now 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Buy the Barrel 6-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Lexi Star 15-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #9 SCR

$2 Exacta (7-6) Paid $29.80
$1 Trifecta Paid $102.70


12th: 133rd Preakness Stakes (Gr. I), $1,000,000, 3yo, 9.75f (DD, Super)

1 Macho Again (Leparoux/Stewart) 20-1: 2nd Derby Trial winner shows up here after some indecision, and am inclined to think he's just a better one turn horse than true router; Looking elsewhere for exotic support..

2 Tres Borrachos (Baze, T/Greely) 30-1: Re-rallyed for show money in Hot Springs Gr. III when last seen, and think he's a better horse than many indicate; Needs best yet to cash check, but is OK at bottom of deepest tri/super plays..

3 Icabad Crane (Rose/Motion) 30-1: 3rd Note that NY bred has quietly won 3 of 4 career starts including traditional local prep, but think this spot a bit silly when nice Empire money lies waiting for him North on I-95; Honest horse but prefer several others more as the underneath players..

4 Yankee Bravo (Solis/Gallagher) 15-1: Connections seem intent on proving this horse is more on dirt than we saw at NoLa, and aside from questionable aptitude on main, he's slow..

5 SCR

6 Racecar Rhapsody (Albarado/McPeek) 30-1: 4th Midwestern version of Indian Sun appears neither fish nor fowl in that he doesn't finish the job on either main track while looking like an OK animal; Note this is only third start of the year for $400k bay O/O A.P. Indy mare; Not on my radar screen but probably a smart include on exotic plays..

7 Big Brown (Desormeaux/Dutrow, R) 1-2: WON Not much else to say that hasn't been said about clearly special unbeaten Derby winner; Wagering the question mark with leaning on him as single in multis and trying to play against within race a reasonible option if rose run emptied the tank and total regression occurs; Most likely winner even with a step backwards..

8 Kentucky Bear (Theriot/Baker) 15-1: One of few here actually in same zip code as favorite with blowout Florida debut and sneaky good Blue Grass as endorsements; Worktab stunningly good with Churchill/Keeneland regimine placing many in his corner and Baker sassy; Expect big effort..

9 Stevil (Velazquez/Zito) 30-1: Zito-LaPenta grey has been solid if unspectacular while never missing a payday in 6 career starts; Note last 2 were much better and were around two turns, and you can make a case for him being as likely a superfecta horse as anyone here; Another Hemingway's Key perhaps?

10 Riley Tucker (Prado/Mott) 30-1: Here's another from the Racecar/Stevil mold of OK horses that just haven't been able to advance their causes much as sophomores; Mott Harlan's Holiday colt was a professional third in Lex while earning best figure yet, is bred for nicely today's trip and will be priced right; Not my favorite candidate but no doorknob either..

11 Giant Moon (Dominguez/Schosberg) 30-1: Happy to see Schosberg get Mr. Fried's nice NY homebred to a Classic after slopfest Gotham derailed Derby hopes; Righted the ship with quality effort in the Wood and looks like he's pointing forward at right time; Should be forwardly-placed on even pace with Ramon back aboard, and could carry a long, long way at giant number..

12 Gayego (Smith/Lobo) 8-1: Fact that Lobo soldiers on with Gilded Time colt an endorsement, but drew poorly again and really concerned that travel toll could be mounting on Gr. II Arky winner; Would need to get back to level of Hot Springs performance and I have my doubts we see that any time soon; Standing against..

13 Hey Byrn (Lopez/Plesa) 20-1: J-T tandem combined for PIM Special placement Friday but face daunting task for Mrs. Oxenberg's Gr. III winner from lousy draw here; Needs to find spot to tuck in passing stands first time to save something for later; Would love to get him in exotics at what's sure to be overlay price, but looks severely compromised..

SELECTIONS:

1. #7 Big Brown WON
2. #8 Kentucky Bear 6th
3. #9 Stevil 5th
4. #11 Giant Moon 8th


<$50 P4 Play:

9: 1-3-8
10: 1-4-6
11: 3-4-6-7-(9/SCR)
12: 7

3x3x4x1 = $36


13th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Basha's Moon 2-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Diamond Flyer 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Short Dancer 5-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #5 Homestead Strike 9-2 5th

$1 Exacta (7-4) Paid $15.50
$1 Trifecta (7-4-3) Paid $42.50


Good luck!
Steve