Bridge jumper on Zenyatta

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

What is the percentage of odds on favorites that finish in the money?

What is that percentage in stakes races?

What is the percentage in races where horses are facing similar company to the last?

What is the percentage for horses racing in similar conditions (ie track, distance, company) as last?

I bet when you break all of it down, without even taking into account what type of uber talent Zenyatta has or how bad those particular horses were, that the percentage is extremely high.

Can anyone think of a horse that recently went off 1-20 to win who ran out of the money?

All the "good" situations you mention are more than negated by this.

Plus, I think any good horse running these days has a 10% chance of getting injured in any race. Maybe the steed would still stagger in 3rd for you.