Travers Play

While races are decided over the track, as they should be, it is difficult to make a off the paper case for anyone other than Colonel John. Using generally accepted handicapping factors such as pace, class, current form etc. he towers over these.

A few will question his ability to get the distance and many more will argue he is a polytrack horse, but neither concern us. True, the weak quality of the field ( no one within ten lengths of par) coupled with his attractive morning line may increase our play but if he runs his race, he is the one to beat.

The case for the others in no particular order:

Zito/La Penta run a trio with two over the top and Cool Coal Man up against it. Nick has had real difficulty keeping weight on CCM and his best puts him behind more than a few in here. Smallish colt picks up eight pounds, J. R. and would need a new top by many.

Tale of Ekati one of three Grade I victors in here has never indicated ten panels is within his scope and could get shuffled back when the speed stops. Nice price but not for us.

A pair of roan Macho Uno's enter off solid victories. Macho Again annexed the Jim Dandy but picks up big weight and should regress. Harlem Rocker is unbeaten on dirt and has worked very well for this but takes a quantum leap in class and will be favored. We expect him to run well and always fear Coa when he is drawn outside our horses. Nevertheless one we have to beat.

"Mambo has improved a ton and his work Tuesday had Neil grinning like a cheshire cat in a mice factory but this is his graded stakes debut and he too picks up substantial poundage. Robby on board for the work, looks for his tenth Grade I in NY ( that is if he doesn't get it a half hour earlier, if not next week) and is also quietly confident. Not hopeless but no value.

Pyro may also be over the top and ten panels challenges that pedigree.

Tizbig and Tres Barrachos should both contribute to the pace but have little chance, and Court Vision is sitting on a big one but the post, poundage and surface will work to his disadvantage, although he can get a piece at a price.

The case for the Colonel:

Named for the soldier that helped when Kari Casner was killed in the 2002 Bali bombing this one was always cut out to be a good one. Sent to the very talented Harty he finished with a flourish in all four juvenile starts.

Tiznow homebred matured nicely and took the Sham in his sophomore debut with a last eighth in sub :12 before running them all down in the Santa Anita Derby again with a big late move. Shipped to Kentucky he worked a silly fast bullet six days out with fractions of :11 and 2, eleven and three, eleven flat, eleven and four and eleven and four out in ten and change!! Then in the race he was mugged at the start and bothered in the first turn before a "bold rally while very wide" before taking a bad step and losing momentum and coasting home a well beaten sixth. Dirt will be no problem off that work, race and plans call for Bossier City next.

After the Derby he was turned out, fattened up and returned to Harty who worked him every six days and entered him in the Swaps. Alas he was beat when the entries were drawn, yet ran his best race to date. In fact, on most services he has ran faster each subsequent start. Since, he has worked every six days with super sonic August 12th move while well in hand and over a second faster than the second best work. Current form; outstanding.

On pace, it is difficult to imagine the Colonel not getting a good seat with two speed horses to his outside and Gomez very familiar. Also as he has matured his tactical has improved immensely.

In conclusion, it looks good for the Colonel at bettable odds. In fact, now with Big Brown finally coming unglued maybe the Colonel takes center stage in the three year old division. A win today would go a long way indeed! BBB