9/12: Belmont ($608k Triple C/O)

[Kasept]

It was one thing getting beat Wednesday at Belmont when there were signals that the races in the Pick Six were especially tricky, but Thursday looked to be different. Yesterday's sequence appeared to shape up formfully, but ended up even more treacherous than the week's opener. When there are 2nd/3rd choice type winners bringing back $9.80, $10.00 and $12.20, and then a pair of $37.00 and $43.80 surprises, hitting a sextet will invariably be close to impossible. Only Sweet Bama Breeze in the nightcap, $5.30, was an obvious "must use" type.

The stunning opportunity lost on the day was Pletcher's VINDGARI, who was the lone first timer starter in the 6th race, and was allowed to leave the gate at a bulbous $17.50-1. This 3yo Paulson Family homebred by Vindication had his younger filly sibling VENATRIX (Tapit) debut Wednesday, and much was made of this family which has already produced Geri and A.P. Arrow. Venatrix, bred far better for grass, trailed throughout in the off the turf event to finish last of eight at 7-1. Vindgari, bred far better for dirt, was utterly ignored as the 2nd longest price on the board and proceeded to wire his more experienced foes in a tremendously professional effort. That, along with Mike Hernandez' $40+ winner in the 8th, helped key a $18,400 Pick 4 (R6-9).

Today's P6 races are really fun and intriguing as Week 2 of the Belmont Fall Championship Meet continues to be wild and wooly in advance of Saturday's Graded Stakes Quartet Card. Hope you survived Thursday and can mount another bid for what should be a $2,500,000 pot in the Six today!


BELMONT PARK


POST SCRATCHES


4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2b My Magic Moment 5-2 WON
Next Best: #1 (POE) Zipolina 3-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Carnita 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Paraiba 6-1 2nd


5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Excellent betting race and one of the races in the sequence that will prove difficult..

Most Likely: #9 Youbethecan 9-2: Fresh and back on grass after washoff.. 3rd
Best Value: #3 Trick N Skip 15-1: His '07 turf runs make him live.. 10th
Next Best: #10 Couth 8-1 8th
Super Adds: #6 Dirty Water Dog 7-2 WON; #1 Victory Sign 8-1 2nd;


6th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Question here revolves around what you do with Contessa's 8-5 Missle Motor. If right, he crushes these..

Most Likely: #9 Missle Motor 8-5 WON
Best Value: #3 The Zipster 10-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Come On Chas 10-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Si O No 20-1 5th


7th: ALW/S, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 9-2
Best Value: #8 South Pacific 15-1
Next Best: #3 Austin Laviva Baby 4-1
Exotics Use: #5 Burns Up the Track 6-1


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 DIVERSE 3-1: Day's best bet to me; Key horse.. 4th
Next Best: #10 Impressionism 5-2: Parked outside but best of rest.. WON
Best Value: #5 My Little Dragon 20-1
Super Add: #1 Roll the Di 12-1 2nd


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Analyze Cat 3-1
Best Value: #9 Louann's Boot 12-1
Next Best: #2 All Verses 7-2
.10 Super Adds: #11 Mr. Wenzel 8-1; #4 Court Appointment 30-1


<$250 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-3
5: 1-3-6-9-10
6: 9
7: 1-3-5-8
8: 2
9: 3-9

3x5x1x4x1x2 = 120 x $2 = $240


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-9
7: 1-3-5-8-9
8: 2
9: 2-3-4-9-11

3x5x1x5 = $75


Good luck!
Steve