Profile of a Derby Winner

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Here's a pretty simple three step gauge to see if a 3-year-old is Ky Derby winner material or not.

All of the last 12 Ky Derby winners fit atleast one of the following 3 very exclusive categories.

* Elite raw talent beyond 6fs in career start #2 :

This is defined as being able to run a triple digit Beyer figure in the 2nd lifetime start.. and that race must come at a distance further than 6fs.

Toughness factor: VERY few horses can manage to do this. Right now, I believe none from this year have.

* Stamina rich closer with good raw talent in career start #2 and 2yo Grade 1 stake success from off the pace:

This is defined as being able to run a Beyer in the 80's or better, beyond 6fs, in career start #2 - and run either a 1st or 2nd in a Grade 1 2yo stake while using closing tactics later in the year.

Toughness factor: Not a single horse in this crop managed to do this.

* Coming into the Derby razor sharp:

This is defined as being able to run a Beyer of 103 or better in the final Derby prep.

Toughness factor: In the last two years - only one horse (Big Brown) came into the Derby with a last out Beyer higher than 103. In the last 4 years, only seven horses out of 80 Derby starters have come into the race with a last out Beyer higher than a 103.


Basically, by putting a very precise focus on quality of performance in only career start #2 and the final prep for the Derby ... you're able to net all of the last 12 Derby winners while still being able to exclude a tremendously high portion of horses.

* Beyer in final Derby prep for subsuquent Derby winners from '97 to '04:

2004: Smarty Jones 107 Beyer
2003: Funny Cide 110 Beyer
2002: War Emblem 112 Beyer
2001: Monarchos 103 Beyer
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus 111 Beyer
1999: Charismatic 108 Beyer
1998: Real Quiet 107 Beyer
1997: Silver Charm 110 Beyer

As you can see, 8 straight years of 103 or better in the final prep - seven of which 107 or better.

* Horses who ran a triple digit Beyer in career start #2

2008 winner: Big Brown: 106 Beyer: 8 furlongs
2006 winner: Barbaro: 102 Beyer: 8.5 furlongs
2004 winner: Smarty Jones: 105 Beyer: 7 furlongs
2003 winner: Funny Cide: 103 Beyer: 7 furlongs

* Closers who ran Beyer in the 80's in career start #2 and had Grade 1 route success at age 2:

2007 winner: Street Sense. Won 2nd career start with 83 Beyer at 6.5f. Closed from way out of it to win Grade 1 BC Juvie with 108 Beyer.

2005 winner: Giacomo. Won 2nd career start handily by 10 lengths at 8.5fs with an 86 Beyer. Was 2nd beaten just a length in Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity while closing strong.


It's certainly looking like a decent possibility that not a single horse in this years Derby will fit under any of the three gauges ... and if that happens ... just call them the worst crop ever again.