3/25: Gulfstream (Late P4)

[Kasept]

Couldn't come up with a successful P3, but certainly had the right idea at Philadelphia Tuesday. Indeed, vulnerable 9th race ML choices Port Royal (3rd) and Communicated (5th) failed, and crazy-priced winner Bird of Play ($98.20) keyed P3 returns of $1,920.20 (7th-9th) and $644.10 (8th-10th). Bird of Play had back class and several races on his PP's that made him plausible in the N3X ALW, but I missed him and the huge opportunity. Earlier in the sequence, Sly Diamond Jim lit the tote ($34.00) and helped initiate the bonanza P3 by re-rallying on Mr. W.B. ($10.60) in the 7th. I'll be keeping an eye on Philly to see if these kinds of superb values are regularities. Sorry I couldn't land the big fish yesterday...

Gulftream offers a good action Quad today to kick off Florida Derby Week.


GULFSTREAM


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: Check scratches here as the AE's are very strong, especially the #14 and #15...

Most Likely: #1 THUNDERBEAR 7-2: Saves ground; Repeat of last wins.. 4th
Best Value: #10 Galloping Thunder 8-1: Lone turf try was best of his 3 runs.. 5th
Next Best: #14 (AE) SCR
Super Add: #11 Gone Mining 8-1: Worked steadily since debut; Tagg adds headgear.. WON


7th: CLM/N2L, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Yes I Am American 4-1: Fawkes bay sits ideal stalking trip..WON
Best Value: #5 Bakarat 5-1: Returned for 3yo debut a new filly.. 6th
Next Best: #6 Thenputitback 7-2: Bay a grudging use 1st/CLM from Ward.. 3rd
Super Add: #8 Turning South 10-1: Late tactics can juice exotics.. 2nd

$1 Exacta (7-8) Paid $26.10
$1 Trifecta (7-8-6) Paid $58.90


8th: CLM, 4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Ballast 5-2: Motion 8yo still formidable; Horse to beat.. 2nd
Best Value: #7 Man Above 8-1: Plesa 5yo dangerous as daisycutter.. 4th
Next Best: #5 SCR
Super Add: #11 Celestial Comet 5-1 3rd


9th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (Super)

Pletcher, who has won with a stunning 7 of his last 15 first time starters, sends #3 Joy of Compounding (SCR) and #12 Great Doxology (8-1) in the nightcap. 'Compounding' is by Saarland out of an unproductive Storm Cat mare, and was a $300k 2yo in training purchase when his sire's average drilling juvy get was $23k. Does EVERYONE see Seth Klarman coming? 'Doxology' is a $30k Newfoundland bay that has worked steadily for her bow. Johnny V. rides the 3 and Decarlo the 12. Neither looks particularly great, and note that Pletcher's eye-catching maiden numbers were compiled exclusively at the MSW level. Others entice more but will protect in wider back-up plays..

Most Likely: #9 SCR
Best Value: #6 Valid Meadow 15-1: Expect big improvement from hot working CRC bay.. WON
Next Best: #7 Dancerama 6-1: Motion firster from top FL breeder Lev Miller.. 8th
Super Add: #4 Trust N Vegas 10-1: No works? Drilling privately for able FTS trainer.. 2nd

$1 Exacta (6-4) Paid $171.00


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-10-11
7: 5-6-7
8: 5/SCR-7-8-11
9: 4-6-7-9/SCR

3x3x3x3 = 81 x .50 = $40.50


Good luck!
Steve