4/4: Wood & SA Derby Cards; Ashland; IL Derby; GP/OP Stakes..

[Kasept]

One of the top afternoons of spring racing unfolds today, with 13 graded stakes between 4:14-7:32pm, and unlimited quality listed stake and ALW action sprinkled throughout the day and landscape. The trio of vitally important Derby Trail preps anchor the day at Ozone Park, Cicero and Arcadia, with earnings ladder positioning certain to get a shakeup. Here's the stake lineup Crist-style:

4:13 (AQU) Bay Shore
4:46 (AQU) Excelsior
5:05 (KEE) Ashland (Gr. I)
5:14 (HAW) IL Derby
5:19 (AQU) Wood Memorial (Gr. I)
5:24 (GP) Skip Away
5:40 (SA) Santa Anita Derby (Gr. I)
5:51 (AQU) Carter H. (Gr. I)
5:57 (OP) Apple Blossom (Gr. I)
6:23 (SA) Arcadia
7:00 (SA) Potrero Grande
7:02 (OP) Oaklawn H.
7:32 (SA) Providencia

Enjoy the great day!


AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Montecore 5-2 WON
Best Value: #8 El Tamberito 9-2 4th
Next Best: #9 Inger Management 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Bitabaz 20-1 9th


7th: 49th Bay Shore (Gr. III), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Capt. Candyman Can 5-2: Steady Wilkes bay sticks to best role.. WON
Next Best: #10 Taqarub 4-1: KMc Aldeb colt also cutting back an 1/8th.. 2nd
Best Value: #5 Rocketing Returns 12-1: Zito poised in every feature today.. 5th
Super Add: #6 Not for Silver 5-1: Trombo Capossella winner flopped last.. 6th


8th: 97th Excelsior (Gr. III), 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Barrier Reef 5-2: Albertrani grey has put it together at 4.. 3rd
Best Value: #3 Real Merchant 10-1: Chilean from Benzel chased choice in Stymie.. 6th
Next Best: #6 Cool Coal Man 7-2: Mineshaft from Nick stretches back out.. 2nd
Super Add: #8 Giant Moon 12-1: Recall Schosberg colt's big try in '08 Wood.. WON


9th: 85th Wood Memorial (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 I Want Revenge 4-5: Fear regression from huge Gotham effort.. WON
Next Best: #5 Imperial Council 2-1: Shaping up as ultimate Derby wiseguy horse.. 5th
Best Value: #3 Lord Justice 15-1: Pletcher A.P. Indy steadily improving; Would love it wet.. 7th
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) West Side Bernie 6-1: Showed better before Lane's End.. 2nd


10th: 109th Carter H. (Gr. I), 3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 FABULOUS STRIKE 2-1: Tough, fast, consistant, win over strip.. 2nd
Best Value: #1a (POE) Kodiak Kowboy 5-1: Only true threat to top pick.. WON
Next Best: #7 Tale of Ekati 3-1: Owns significant wins this oval; Found niche one-turning.. 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Understatement 15-1: Worth flyer underneath as exotics booster.. 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-5-6-10
8: 1-3-6
9: 2-3-5
10: 1-4

4x3x3x2 = $72



KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


9th: Ashland (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Recall last year's edition of this Oaks prep where KMc poly specialist jumped up and beat Proud Spell and other prominant dirt gals. Stardom Bound looks very vulnerable here having been ordinary in her pair of Gr. I wins this annum, but looking to turf/synth types as opposed to nice NY bred What a Pair or hot working Lukas miss Be Fair, though either would be preferable to the BC Juvenile Filly Champ if this was on loam.

Best Value: #5 Gozzip Girl 8-1: Albertrani miss going great; Doubt price holds.. 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Stardom Bound 6-5: Returns to BC JF level or loses here, drowned in Oaks.. 3rd
Best Value: #6 Dream Empress 5-1: Return to site of Alcibiades win may be perfect tonic.. 7th
Super Add: #4 Be Fair 15-1: DWL miss working big; Threat for all if surface OK by her.. 4th



HAWTHORNE


PRE-SCRATCHES


7th: Illinois Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f

It's now or never for the likes of Giant Oak and Free Country, and my inclination is to look towards some formful players like the surprising Musket Man and the new faces..

Most Likely: #8 Musket Man 7-2: Ryan TB Derby winner may be underestimated.. WON
Best Value: #9 Al Khali 6-1: Pletcher-WinStar import by Md'O looks bona fide.. 8th
Next Best: #6 Perfect Song 6-1: Trombo returns to HAW; Pace play bred for trip.. 7th
Super Add: #1 Nowhere to Hide 5-1: Steady $250k Zito grinder adds Paco.. 4th



GULFSTREAM


PRE-SCRATCHES


9th: 22nd Skip Away (Gr. II), 4+, 9.5f

Most Likely: #2 Finallymadeit 2-1: Game 5yo shoved by owner into 6th stake of meet.. WON
Best Value: #3 Fierce Wind 4-1: Pricey flop paid off for Halsey with dinky stake win last.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Tomcito 3-1: Expect better from Peru flash now with Albertrani.. 7th
Super Add: #5 Tizbig 6-1: Jerkens 4yo hasn't developed much since good soph exploits.. 2nd



SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: 72nd Santa Anita Derby (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Chocolate Candy 6-1: Note Cash Call 3rd and respect Hollendorfer's handling.. 2nd
Most Likely: #10 SCR
Next Best: #4 Pioneerof the Nile 2-1: Disappointment for Zayat may start here today.. WON
Super Add: #5 Mr. Hot Stuff 8-1: Col. John's brother likely ready for next step forward.. 3rd


7th: 50th Arcadia (Gr. II), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Madeo 5-2: Shirreffs 4yo gets GoGo with Smitty away.. 3rd
Best Value: #9 SCR
Next Best: #3 Desert Code 3-1: Versatile and tough if distance in range.. 8th
Super Add: #5 Global Hunter 4-1 5th


8th: 27th Potrero Grande H. (Gr. II), 4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Halo Najib 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Six Pack Abs 9-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Paul's Hope 6-1 3rd


9th: 29th Providencia (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 1m-T (

Most Likely: #5 Pasar Silbano 4-1: La Habra winner tries to stretch speed 8f.. 3rd
Best Value: #2 Acting Lady 12-1: O'Neill miss exits sharp stakes try this trip.. WON
Next Best: #6 Pride Dancer 6-1: Frankel Irish-bred looks classy enough for these.. 11th
Super Add: #9 Oui Say Oui 9-2: Grp II placed juvy just missed 1st N.A. try.. 8th


10th: OC/N1X, 4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Hard Bill 7-2 WON
Best Value: #7 Partywithlarryz 8-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Art Currency 8-1 11th
Super Add: #1 A Lil Dumaani 12-1 2nd


11th: Cal-bred ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 Nitro Active 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Harlene 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 He's Really Big 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Corona Time 5-1 WON
High 5 Play: #8 One Chin Again 12-1 11th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-6
9: 2-5-6-9
10: 5-7-9
11: 2-5-7

2x4x3x3 = $72



OAKLAWN


PRE-SCRATCHES


8th: 44th Apple Blossom (Gr. I), F&M-4+, 8.5f

Most Likely: #5 Acoma 1-1: Carroll miss can't dawdle; Pace set-up questionable.. 3rd
Best Value: #2 Superior Storm 5-1: Big opportunity for LA-bred that's 11 of 16 lifetime.. 2nd
Next Best: #3 Seventh Street 8-5: KMc sends first ever to Ozarks.. WON


10th: 63rd Oaklawn H. (Gr. II), 4+, 9f

This is a better race than people are making out..

Most Likely: #4 Honest Man 5-2: Jones 5yo flopped in NoLa slop last.. 6th
Next Best: #5 It's a Bird 3-1: Wolfson SunMill star obvious threat on best.. WON
Best Value: #7 Runforthedoe 8-1: Lobo BRZ number liked main in Argentina; Jumps up.. 2nd
Super Add: #1 Catmantoo 12-1: Local gelding can boost gimmicks 3rd/layoff.. 7th


Good luck!
Steve