Best current Derby future odds

[Dunbar]

TheGreek has odds up today for the first time since before Pool 3. Here's what they have now. The first number is the odds at TheGreek; the 2nd number is the horse's closing odds in Pool 3

Charitable Man* 40.5, 45.7
Chocolate Candy 28.5, 18.9
Desert Party 22.5, 16.1
Dunkirk 7.25, 11.5

Friesan Fire 12.15, 8.4
Giant Oak 52.5, 53.7
Hold Me Back* 25.5, 24.0
I Want Revenge 4.25, 4.8

Mafaaz* 40.5, 73.7
Musket Man* 25.5, 25.6

Old Fashioned 15.25, 12.5
Papa Clem 52.5, 47.1
Pioneerof the Nile 10.15, 9.6
Quality Road 8.45, 6.1
Regal Ransom* 32.5, 42.4

Terrain* 38.5, 47.4


Win Willy* 20.5, 16.5
Mutuel Field("All Others") 4.25, 17.4**

**TheGreek's "All Others" includes Theregoesjojo, Flying Private, Imperial Council, and Take the Points.

What's striking is the difference in the "All Others" odds. Some of that difference can be attributed to Theregoesjojo being included in TheGreek's "All Others". It was only after Pool 3 closed that it was announced that Theregoesjojo would run in the BlueGrass, greatly increasing the chance he'll make it to the starting gate for the Derby. Theregoesjojo is offered at 40-1 at Bodog and 30-1 at WSEX, but even if you say jojo has a 15-1 chance to win the Derby and subtract that from TheGreek's "All Others", it would only move TheGreek's "All Others" odds to 6.8-1. Still way below Pool 3's 17.4-1. The lower odds on "All Others" is somehow made up with higher odds elsewhere--the vig/takeout for TheGreek's odds line is 15%.

Also, it looks like Quality Road's quarter crack has been factored into TheGreek's odds. Otherwise they wouldn't be offering 8.45-1, while offering just 4.25-1 on IWR and 7.25-1 on Dunkirk.

In the absence of Pinnacle, TheGreek has emerged as the leading site for horse futures. World Sports Exchange has better odds on just 2 of those horses: Dunkirk at 8-1 and IWR at 9-2. Bodog also has the best odds on just 2 horses: Desert Party at 25-1 and Hold Me Back at 30-1.

Using the best odds at TheGreek, Bodog, and WSEX (including the 4.25-1 for "All Others" at TheGreek), you get a line with 12.7% effective takeout. If Pinnacle had a line up, the overall effective takeout would probably be below 10% by now.

--Dunbar