5/2: Churchill Downs (6th-11th)

[Kasept]

Track may be more difficult to harrow into good/fast territory today as rain may continue off and on all afternoon. Remarkable job Friday as Butch Lehr's crew utilized every trick in the book getting surface from slop to fast by Oaks. Suggestion to stay open to fair oval proved out, as frontrunners only had an edge in the first couple of main track events before rallying runners got into photos as day wore on. Rachel Alexandra performance was one for the ages, as the insanely talented filly swiped the Orchids in near record time under a hand ride. She only started to really run when Borel let he have her head after the wire. It was amazing, and the only performance I could think of recently like it was Point Given's Belmont win.

Doubt Derby produces any kind of comparable run, with a myriad of questions hanging over virtually every major runner. My positive view of Quality Road coming into this race left me with no real heartfelt opinion on a single horse for the rose run, so my approach will be scattershot. In terms of order of preference as of Derby morning, I'd present this way:

1. Chocolate Candy
2. Friesan Fire
3. Regal Ransom
4. Mr. Hot Stuff
5. Hold Me Back

Hope everyone enjoyed "At the Races" coverage of Derby... Oaks-Derby recap Monday! Good luck to everybody today and always.


CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: 75th Churchill Downs (Gr. II), 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #3 Kodiak Cowboy 8-5
Next Best: #9 Sok Sok 5-2
Best Value: #8 Silver Edition 12-1
Super Add: #6 Accredit 8-1


7th: 54th Eight Belles (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 7.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #1 Just Jenda 4-1
Best Value: #10 Auspicious 9-2
Next Best: #4 Four Gifts 3-1
Super Add: #7 Loveyou Everybody 15-1


8th: 24th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #2 Visit 7-2
Best Value: #1 Lemon Chiffon 6-1
Next Best: #7 Ballymore Lady 9-2
Super Add: #3 Tizaqueena 8-1


9th: 23rd Humana Distaff (Gr. I), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #9 Game Face 2-1
Best Value: #7 Royale Michelle 10-1
Next Best: #3 Informed Decision 9-5
Super Add: #5 Secret Gypsy 7-2


10th: 23rd Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 9f-T ((P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #6 Einstein 2-1
Best Value: #9 Zambezi Sun 10-1
Next Best: #4 Court Vision 7-2
Super Add: #3 Proudinsky 6-1


11th: 135th Kentucky Derby (Gr. I), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Best Value: #11 Chocolate Candy 20-1: Candy Ride colt should relish trip, surface; sharp pre-race work..
Most Likely: #6 Friesan Fire 5-1: Grudgingly respect solid A.P. Indy that may own big tactical edge..
Exotics Use: #5 Hold Me Back 15-1; #10 Regal Ransom 30-1
Super Add: #1 West Side Bernie 30-1; #3 Mr. Hot Stuff 30-1


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2
9: 3-7-9
10: 3-4-6-9
11: 3-5-6-10-11-15

2x3x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$300 P6 Play:

6: 3-6-8-9
7: 1
8: 1-2
9: 3-7-9
10: 6
11: 3-5-6-10-11-15

4x1x2x3x1x6 = 144 x $2 = $288


Good luck!
Steve