5/29: Belmont ($32k C/O)

[Kasept]

Being in position to benefit from an upset worked in my favor Thursday when #12 (AE draw-in) Becky's Exchange made her turf debut a winner at 21-1. The big price tripped $1,247 worth of P4 action on the $72 play thanks to the dead heat in the opening leg. Whether the winner was overlooked due to her main track form or being Also Eligible, as a daughter of Exchange Rate, whose progeny win 15% of their grass bows, she had every right to improve against an ordinary field.

As mentioned above, just getting in position to hit a lucrative P4 like Thursday's is half the battle, and you cannot find the big payoffs without overlay horses on your tickets. Juxtapose Thursday versus two recent examples: May 23, when Joey's Chance (my Super Add choice) was left off the ticket and a $1,600 score was missed, and May 25 when Manitowish Waters (Live to $170 payoff) held off Hint (Live to $1,700 payoff). Thursday's payday was realized because you included an outsider that was a possible winner on breeding versus a suspect group. Similarly on Monday, Hint was a horse that had a legitimate win chance and came agonizing close. He could have won and delivered the big return, just as even money Warm Springs Girl could have beaten Beck's Exchange Thursday and quashed the P4 down to $100.

Remember that the reason you are playing a multi-race sequence is to specifically find horses like Joey's Chance (14-1), Hint (13-1) and Becky's Exchange (21-1) because their presence in a P4 or P3 are instrumental in the bonanza overpays in the skiens.

Rough night of weather and possible storms have taken turf races out of the Belmont Carryover equation, an d though I've capped the sequence, scratches may render the multis unplayable. Thoughts are below and we'll see how the changes affect things later today... Hope you did well Thursday with the $1,250 P4 or $1,700+ 9th superfecta there for the taking.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


OFF THE TURF -- 4th, 5th, 7th, 9th


4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Flip the Coin 5-1 WON
Best Value: #9 Quantifier 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Code Name 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Rock Candy Mt. 10-1 3rd


5th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD, NO TRI OR SUPER)

Most Likely: #2 Call Tiger 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 In the Spotlight 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Pirate King 3-1 WON


6th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, NO SUPER)

Most Likely: #4 Eager Emma 7-2 WON
Next Best: #2 Carts Dream 8-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Z Cats Meow 15-1 5th


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Loquacious Lil 3-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Dressed to Win 5-2 5th
Best Value: #11 Driven by Seattle 6-1 2nd


8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Best Value: #4 Nijinsky Bullet 6-1 5th
Most Likely: #5 Red Hot Jazz 4-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Turn Away 7-5 WON


9th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (NO SUPER)

Best Value: #4 Victory for M'lady 10-1 2nd
Most Likely: #9 Ski Ensign 6-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Eightyfive S 8-1 WON
Super Add: #10 Sumwhrovrtherainbw 15-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-7
7: 10
8: ALL
9: 4-8-9-10

3x1x6x4 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (4/10/2/8) Paid $80.50


Good luck!
Steve