7/2: BEL (4th-9th); CD (4th-11th)

[Kasept]

Solid try at the BEL carryover P6 was thwarted Wednesday by Fiona Freud, the perennial also ran that got her 2nd career win in her 25th start in the 5th. I tried to single Bruce Levine's Pea Stone, and upon further review, I'm not disappointed with the decision. The 11-2 Roddy Valente runner, who normally seeks a just-off stalker's trip, had traffic trouble trying to rally after a slow start and only missed by a length and a half.

That was bad luck as the rest of the sequence went the right way for a $3,700+ 6/6 payday and $45 5/6 conso. A Pea Stone win over the 3-2 Fiona Freud boosts that sextet return by perhaps three times, so I came away feeling OK about the attempt which dropped in cost to $144 after the early scratch of We Get It from the nightcap. Caught the late P4 for $127, so the expenses of the day were more than acceptable given the mutuel potential had everything broken perfectly. Hope you did well. A little Belmont and the final Churchill nightswimming are today's glances.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Violette entry (Only one goes; Both good) 9-2
Best Value: #4 Consort 10-1
Next Best: #2b (POE) Discreetly Mine 5-2 (Only one goes)
Exotics Use: #7 Insightful 6-1


5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Star Player 5-2
Best Value: #2 SCR
Next Best: #1 Thunder Minister 5-1
Super Add: #3 Iron Curtain 4-1


6th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Ten Carrot Nikki 3-1
Best Value: #4 Smokin Pistol 8-1
Next Best: #9 Crimson's Gold 7-2


7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 I'llthinkofsumthin 6-1
Best Value: #7 Trillium 20-1
Next Best: #1 What She Said 5-2
Exotics Use: #2e Jacobson entry 4-1

OFF THE TURF: 9-7-10

Trifecta Spot Play: 5-7 with 1-2-5-6-7 with 1-2-5-6-7 (2x4x3 = $24)


8th: NYB-Wandering Cloud, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Northern Netti 2-1
Next Best: #1 Dance Gal Dance 5-2
Best Value: #4 Muffy 6-1


9th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Better Than Swiss 5-2
Best Value: #1 Cherry Lady 9-2
Next Best: #7 By the Sky 4-1
Super Add: #8 Royal Valentine 5-1


@$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-7
7: 1-2-5-6-7
8: 1-6
9: 1-2-7-8

2x5x2x4 = $80



CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Atomic Force 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Barishnikov 5-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Insider 3-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Cape Doctor 4-1 4th


5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (

Most Likely: #9 Half Crafty 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Dabeed 10-1 10th
Next Best: #1 Bottle of Smoke 7-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Dr. Fever 12-1 8th


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 SCR
Next Best: #10 Sealed Bid 4-1 5th
Best Value: #8 La Milanesa 5-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Cruisin'nthebridle 3-1 3rd
High 5 Play: #2 Queen of Empire 5-1 4th


7th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #4 Step Out Smartly 3-1 WON-DH
Best Value: #5 Honest to Betsy 5-1
Next Best: #6 SCR


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 6-8-9
5: 1-7-8-9
6: 7-8-10-11/SCR
7: 4-5-6

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


8th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Fiftycentsondollar 4-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Aztec King 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 SCR
Super Add: #6 Izzy Ali 5-1 7th


9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Special Clearance 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Hitch Your Wagon 9-2 6th
Next Best: #4 A. M. Due 5-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Sister Lou Ann 3-1 WON-DH


10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Squander 15-1 10th
Most Likely: #3 Itain'tover 7-2 5th
Next Best: #4 Senor Fuego 6-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Tintim Por Tintim 5-1 9th


11th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 Fort Apache 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Icetate 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Iftheshoefits 12-1 WON
Exotics Use: #6 SCR
High 5 Play: #5 Niobrara 4-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3/SCR-5-8
9: 2-3-4-6-8
10: 1-3-4-5-7
11: 2-11

2x5x5x2 = 100 x .50 = $50


Good luck!
Steve