7/4: Belmont (P4); MTH Stakes

[Kasept]

Got clobbered at Monmouth Friday before getting untracked at Churchill. Entire Monmouth P4 pool was taken down by one ticket to the tune of $40k after a challenging three races and $100-ish winner in the anchor. At CD, got rolling early with overlay winner of the 8th to start the late action. Hope you did OK in advance of the big holiday weekend of action. With 2 Dee Tee Stables runners in at Arlington today, I'm a bit distracted, but the 3 Belmont stakes as part of the P4 is the main wagering focus along with the intriguing stakes at MTH.

Have a wonderful, safe 4th!


BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


8th: 92nd Dwyer (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Warrior's Reward 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Masala 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Kensei 6-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Just Ben 2-1 6th


9th: 62nd Prioress (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1e Evans entry 3-1 WON/2nd
Best Value: #2 Luster 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Heart Ashley 4-1 6th
Super Add: #8 On the Menu 6-1 7th


10th: 123rd Suburban H. (Gr. II), 3+, 10f (DD, Super)

Very fun edition of this legendary event. Seems to have surprising plus pace scenario so include rallying types and prices. There are no bad plays in this wide open affair..

Most Likely: #4 Asiatic Boy 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Real Merchant 15-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Dry Martini 6-1 WON
Super Add: #10 Samhoon 20-1 10th


10th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Brutally tough way to end tricky sequence! 6-7, maybe 8 different runners eligible here..

Most Likely: #7 Tawaared 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Chapin Beach 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1e Clement entry 7-5 6th/8th
Super Add: #4 Evolutionist 4-1 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-4
9: 1-2
10: 2-4-7
11: 1-4-5-7

3x2x3x4 = $72 $2 Pick 4 (3-1-2-4) Paid $1,103.00



MONMOUTH PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


9th: 62nd Salvator Mile (Gr. III), 3+, 1m

Best Value: #7 Keep Laughing 10-1 8th
Most Likely: #2 Smooth Air 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Coal Play 4-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Kiss the Kid 15-1 5th


10th: 56th United Nations (Gr. I), 3+, 11f-T

Most Likely: #7 Presious Passion 9-2 WON
Best Value: #2 Strike a Deal 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Spice Route 4-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Wesley 10-1 8th


Good luck!
Steve