Aiden O'Brien

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He's been a little hard luck here of late.

He's winless with his last 25 starters in North America.

He's also 3-for-65 with a microscopic $0.47 ROI with all starters in North America since 2003.

He's had a couple of recent Breeders Cup fatalities among his horses as well. Landseer and George Washington...I believe both died on the track BC day.

But I think I made a big mistake last year in calling him "the one - and only one - of the European trainer I want no part of"

But the closer I've looked at him... the more I think a good many of his horses haven't run all that terrible.

In his training career, O'Brien is just 1-for-26 in North America with horses who have won their previous start. The lone winner was Johannesburg, who needed 1:42.27 to win the Juvenile .. compare that with the 1:41.49 it took Tempera to win the Juv Fillies.

Looking at all of O'Brien's North American winners besides Johannesburg ... you see a collection of horses who didn't exactly bring their sharpest Euro form in.

* Ciro - 3rd by 10.5 lengths and 6th by 8.5 in his two prior Euro starts.

* Ballingarry- four consecutive defeats in Europe before romping in the Canadian International.

* Landseer - was beaten 3 times in a row in Europe - including a 13th place finish in his prior start before winning the Shadwell Mile.

* High Chapparall - 3rd at 2/1 and 3rd at 5/2 in the Arc both times before winning the BC Turf once and dead-heating the other time.

* Powerscourt - 3 defeats in a row, including one as a 3/5 favorite in Germany prior to crossing the line first in the Arl Million but getting DQ'd. He had 7 foreign defeats in a row before shipping in and easily winning the Arlington Million by 3 at 5/1 odds the time he wasn't DQ'd.

* Aussie Rules - finished 4th place or worse in four straight races in Europe before taking the Shadwell Mile at 5/1 odds.


I think we have a solid book on like 700 or 800 trainers here, some of them at tracks we rarely see when we bet. But you have very little data to go off of with Euro trainer... I'd say O'Brien horses seem to be most dangerous when they bring in less than overwhelming Euro form.

When they bring in overwhelming Euro form - or go 2nd time NA .. they tend to underperform expectations.