11/12: Aqueduct (P4); Churchill ($30k C/O)

[Kasept]

Fun start to the week with good racing and some solid hits. P4's and Churchill carryover tries were short, but $300+ triple and $100+ saver P3 to close Louisville punts put the day right. The big opportunity on the afternoon was the Big A quad which paid a bulbous $2,100+. The singling of Mott-Dominguez feature flop Sky's the Limit (1-2!) was the culprit in the miss, and stung particularly when my Best Value second choice (Rodman) romped home at $12.

I pressed action at Churchill because there was a similar opening in the late stages at Aqueduct of which I didn't take advantage. I failed to bet Rodman straight, didn't have a late P3 play going ($187.50), and didn't play the selections in the nightcap tri ($112.50). Uggh... Got out OK for the day though as cited, and hope you did alright too. Carryover reached $30k+ at Churchill for today, and Aqueduct has a challenging sequence worth trying.


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Working Class Hero 6-5 4th
Best Value: #9 Lion's Lair 5-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Call Tiger 8-1 WON
Super Add: #5 Trusting Heart 15-1 7th


7th: The Sabin, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Scratches allow prominent players Cable and Diamond Dina to get in..

Most Likely: #8 Sea Chanter 3-1 WON
Next Best: #12 Cable 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Always for Love 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Sunshine for Life 5-1 8th


8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Base Commander 3-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Gone Missing 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Mr. Madison 8-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Mr. Unstoppable 10-1 3rd

$2 Exacta (5-7) Paid $26.60
$2 Trifecta (5-7-9) Paid $158.50
$1 Superfecta (5-7-9-3) Paid $644.00


9th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Great Gracie Dane 7-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Foof's Melody 12-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Holy Moly 5-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Every Little Thing 6-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-5-9
7: 8-9-12
8: 5-7
9: 1-7-12

4x3x2x3 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (4-8-5-7) Paid $414.50



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM, 2yo, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Proud Expression 5-1 8th
Best Value: #6 Phil the Thrill 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Girl Bar 5-2 WON
Super Add: #2 Mis Pardner Rules 5-1 6th


6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 The Right Face 4-1
Best Value: #4 Linebacker 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Hidden Bay 5-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Keepinonestepahead 6-1 2nd


7th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Cosmic Transit 3-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Nehru 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Sporty 10-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Greytap 8-1 6th


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Honchis'n Ponchis 10-1 WON
Most Likely: #11 Film Charm 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Sweetest Song 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Argyle Pink 3-1 7th


9th: OC/C, F&M-3+, 5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Libor Lady 2-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Don'ttalktome 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Taletobetold 4-1
Super Add: #9 Dee's Rose 15-1


10th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #3 Malibu Martini 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Chaffee John 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Snuck By 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Crazy Coyote 9-2 6th
High 5 Play: #13 Hyrule 10-1 4th


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 6-9
6: 3-4
7: 1-4-6-7
8: 1-3-11
9: 2-5
10: 3

2x2x4x3x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-6-7
8: 1-3-11
9: 2-5-10
10: 3-5-11-12

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve