11/14: Calder; Churchill (Carryover $165k Sunday!)

[Kasept]

Third straight day of profits Friday with Churchill punts returning the $500+ P4, bonus exotic mutuels in the nightcap and the $300 P6 conso. Only the single of Lady Carlock in the second leg of the sextet failed to connect. When crazily overlaid No Such Word (>14-1), my on top Best Value, took the 10th, an $87k 8 day carryover was the result. That card-ender finished up the day nicely, as the Cindy Jones trainee keyed a $330 tri and $1,110 super. Hope you did well and are ready for a fun weekend of play including Calder's Florida Millions, Churchill's Carryover and a good Mrs. Revere.


CALDER RACE COURSE


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: 6th John Franks Juv. Turf, 2yo-F (FL), 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #10 D'lucci Girl 3-1 8th
Best Value: #6 Simply Impressive 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Winsockie 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Suzanne 6-1 7th


5th: 6th Jack Price Juvenile, 2yo (FL), 7f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Mr. Green 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 What a Prince 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Good to Be Seen 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Peace at Dawn 4-1 4th


6th: 8th O'Farrell Juvenile, 2yo-F (FL), 7f (P3, Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #4 Joanie's Catch 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Winey Taylor 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Sweetlalabye 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Musical Romance 10-1 7th
High 5 Play: #6 Carphonic 4-1 WON


7th: 6th Appleton Juvenile Turf, 2yo (FL), 8.5f-T (.50 Big 4, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Family Foundation 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Thunder Brew 10-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Bim Bam 4-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Show the Way J 5-1 3rd


8th: 8th Jack Dudley Sprint, 3+ (FL), 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Pashito the Che 2-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Honey Honey Honey 5-1
Next Best: #4 Green Vegas 6-1
Super Add: #6 Little Nick 8-1 3rd


9th: 8th Heubeck Distaff H., F&M-3+, (FL), 8.5f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Jessica is Back 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Sweetsouthernqueen 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Even Road 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Sweet Repent 4-1 WON


10th: 8th Bonnie Heath Turf Cup H., 3+ (FL), 9f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Soldier's Dancer 4-5 WON
Best Value: #5 Fearless Eagle 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Pickpocket 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Livingston Street 5-1 4th


<$75 .50 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-9-11-12
8: 2-4-5-6-[8]
9: 2-[6]
10: 5-[8]

Main: 5x5x2x2 = 100 x .50 = $50
Press: 5x1x1x1 = 5 x $5 = $25


11th: 8th Carl Rose Classic, 3+ (FL) 9f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Too Many Toyz 8-1 WON ($12.20)
Most Likely: #3 It's a Bird 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Temo's Dream 3-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Dream Maestro 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (2-3) Paid $16.70
$1 Trifecta (2-3-5) Paid $59.10



CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Pacific Star 5-2 6th
Best Value: #5 N. Y. Wise Guy 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Win Grammy Boy 3-1 WON
Super Add: #1 He Ain't Right 12-1 2nd


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Gather All 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Jump Start Now 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Miro 3-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Polished 8-1 6th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Choice Play 5-1 WON ($11.60)
Most Likely: #5 Sea Gull 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Bill's Presence 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Joxy Roxy 12-1 4th

$1 Exacta (8-5) Paid $17.30
$1 Trifecta (8-5-3) Paid $58.50
$1 Superfecta (8-5-3-1) Paid $370.00


8th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Harlem Rocker 8-5 2nd
Best Value:#8 Cassoulet 10-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Mutadda 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Timbucto 15-1 8th


9th: 19th Mrs. Revere (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Absolutely fabulous, and nearly impossible, stake.. Reaching out for prices..

Best Value: #5 Mary's Follies 10-1 WON ($20.80)
Most Likely: #7 Hot Cha Cha 3-1 4th
Next Best: #1 C. S. Silk 10-1 11th
Super Add: #6 War Kill 20-1 10th


10th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #8 Majestic Falcon 10-1
Most Likely: #5 Truchan 4-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Monarchos Boy 8-1
Super Add: #4 Raincatcher 8-1 DNF
High 5 Play: #10 Soldier Field 6-1 WON


<$150 P6 Play:

This is a very tricky sequence and I believe it will take a big ticket to hit. Built relatively inexpense play, but suggest treading lightly or avoiding altogether if uncomfortable with skein...

5: 2
6: 8-10
7: 3-5-8
8: 5-8
9: 1-5-7
10: 5-8

1x2x3x2x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-8
8: 5-8
9: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12
10: 5-8

3x2x12x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve